My Dream Trade (waste of time)

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My Dream Trade (waste of time)

Postby YoHoChecko » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:11 pm

So here it is.

The timeline: 2 weeks from now.

The interim:
-The Patriots and Packers go either 1-1 or 2-0 over the next two weeks, both looking like contenders with flaws. Defenses struggling.
-The Cardinals go 0-2 over this time, leaving them 2-5 with their only wins against the 49ers and Colts.
-The Giants' suspension of DRC continues, and their wasted season continues to wither away

The outlooks:
Giants and Cardinals: 2017 is a wash; all moves are now made with 2018 and forward in mind.
The Patriots and Packers: Super Bowl is a possibility. All moves are made with a desire to win now, though without sacrificing the future.

The philosophies:
- The Packers traditionally are future-oriented and will only make trades that benefit them in the long and short-term
- The Patriots have made a habit of trading away players in their contract years, and of late, have prioritized veteran player acquisition to draft picks
- The Cardinals went for an aging win-now team and are faced with a closed window and a likely rebuild in the near-to-immediate future.
- The Giants came off of an 11-5 season, but have been ravaged by injuries and poor execution this season, which may lead to a new GM and has left the locker room in shambles. The squeaky wheel might need to get a path out of town greased.

The trade:
MegaTrade.JPG
MegaTrade.JPG (33.22 KiB) Viewed 236 times


The Rationale:
The Packers
While they have long-term faith in Damarious Randall's talent, to date he has been inconsistent and given up too many plays. With their corners a mix of banged up and ineffective, the team needs a star in the secondary to compete with the better offenses in the league. Swapping Peterson into the lineup in place of Randall is worth a 1st round pick. Peterson's remaining contract lasts 3 years with manageable base salaries and no guarantees remaining after 2017.

Kyler Fackrell, meanwhile, has failed to take the second-year leap hoped for or expected by many. With Beigel coming off of the PUP, a LB spot can be freed up.

Finally, due to the expectation of receiving 3-4 compensatory picks this year, the Packers can afford to miss out on a couple draft picks and still be left with 8-9 next year, not sacrificing the future.

The Patriots
The Patriots tried hard to move Malcolm Butler in the offseason. The thought being that it is best to get value for him before losing him after 2017 for nothing. As both a defensive coach and a personnel evaluator, Belichick is somewhat likely to believe that he can get more use out of talented players than other teams. This would make a swap out of Malcolm Butler for DRC and Damarious Randall palatable. Both can contribute in 2017 and will remain in place for 2018.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are very thin at WR due to injuries and in the front 7 on defense. While Hightower likely will have returned by then, an aging Karlos Dansby--still a starter--is the type of veteran player that Belichick loves to squeeze the most out of. Larry Fitzgerald is the perfect complement to the current receiving corps, as a possession receiver with size who has a knack for making the big play in the big moment.

Due to both Cardinals players' age and expiring contracts, the trade cost for them mid-year is very low. Due to Randall underperforming and DRC aging and landing in the doghouse, the trade value is also somewhat lowered. In all, the Pats get one-year rentals for aging players in places of need, and 2 CBs for two years to make up for the loss of Malcolm Butler.

The Cardinals
This one looks the weirdest.

They give up a franchise great (Fitz) and a longtime starter (Dansby). However, this play is for 2018, not 2017. And both of those players are likely to be gone in 2018 anyway. Thus, getting some value for them now is ideal.

Secondly, they give up their best defensive player--a bonafied star. This is more a move to get any kind of return with the leverage they have. Getting Malcolm Butler and a 1st round pick in exchange for Peterson is not a bad deal for a team looking to rebuild. This deal would be contingent on the Cardinals reaching a long-term extension with Butler, which would come cheaper than Peterson. Further, they shed some of their age and salary in other moves.

Finally, Kyler Fackrell. Obviously he doesn't have a lot of value, but he is an Arizona local that was tracked by the team leading up to the draft process. Again, with the gift of an innovative defensive coordinator, someone might think a change in role or scheme or scenery is all it takes to unlock talent. The team wants to get younger and cheaper, bringing in players and picks is a great way to do it.

The Giants
DRC is now a distraction. Their season is lost. They get some return for him and feel good about it.

Conclusion:
Obviously, a 4-team, 7-player, 3-pick megatrade is not going to happen in the NFL--especially midseason. This is NBA kind of stuff.

But it's been fun thinking about a few teams' different needs and priorities and how it could balance. It's fun to think about a superstar in our secondary. And it's fun to think about how Belichick could wave a magic wand and get things settled, and again leave the league wondering why he always seems to get his way. And it's also fun to think about how a team like the Cardinals should react when they put all their eggs into the basket of a closing window only to see that window slammed shut a year early.
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Re: My Dream Trade (waste of time)

Postby packfntk » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:20 pm

Cool idea, I like pipedream thinking for fun. It would be great.

The Pats would heavily make out with that.
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Re: My Dream Trade (waste of time)

Postby YoHoChecko » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:24 pm

packfntk wrote:Cool idea, I like pipedream thinking for fun. It would be great.

The Pats would heavily make out with that.

Yeah, it seems like a lot, but I really don't think Fitz and Dansby would cost much.

This actually all started with me seeing a Fitz-for-Butler suggestion in a column last week (and then seeing a Deion Sanders wants to see Peterson to Green Bay segment on NFL Network that was sent to me in a push notification via their app).

The Pats make out short-term, but in 2018, what do they have from it? Randall and DRC instead of Butler, and no picks in rounds 3,4, or 5 (due to some other trades, as well)
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Re: My Dream Trade (waste of time)

Postby backthepack4ever » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:39 pm

Deion Sanders was talking about how the packers should make a move for PP yesterday. Who cares about the Pats, I would be all for making a push for PP. Hes a monster and could be left alone on #1 wrs. Like you said its a pipedream but I think it could be pulled off if TT made a push for him.

I don't see how anyone would want Randall or Fack at this point but Id be fine moving Haha since we have some depth at the Safety position and a high draft pick.
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Re: My Dream Trade (waste of time)

Postby packfntk » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:57 pm

backthepack4ever wrote:Deion Sanders was talking about how the packers should make a move for PP yesterday. Who cares about the Pats, I would be all for making a push for PP. Hes a monster and could be left alone on #1 wrs. Like you said its a pipedream but I think it could be pulled off if TT made a push for him.

I don't see how anyone would want Randall or Fack at this point but Id be fine moving Haha since we have some depth at the Safety position and a high draft pick.


In a direct deal for PP, the Packers would have to give up multiple players as well as multiple 1st round picks.
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Re: My Dream Trade (waste of time)

Postby BF004 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:06 pm

I would love to make a move for PP.

He is only 27 though, signed up through 2020.

We've seen in the NFL it doesn't take horribly long to rebuild. I wouldn't trade PP if I were them, unless blown away, which is something I hope we wouldn't do. Peterson could/should still be good for 5 years, damn hard to get a good to great corner, having him will help the rest of their D develop greatly.

Fitz and Dansby would make sense from AZ's standpoint. Fitz to NE does make a lot of sense.
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Re: My Dream Trade (waste of time)

Postby BF004 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:12 pm

Vontae Davis does make sense if Indy loses another game or two, he will be a FA next offseason.
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Re: My Dream Trade (waste of time)

Postby backthepack4ever » Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:35 pm

packfntk wrote:
backthepack4ever wrote:Deion Sanders was talking about how the packers should make a move for PP yesterday. Who cares about the Pats, I would be all for making a push for PP. Hes a monster and could be left alone on #1 wrs. Like you said its a pipedream but I think it could be pulled off if TT made a push for him.

I don't see how anyone would want Randall or Fack at this point but Id be fine moving Haha since we have some depth at the Safety position and a high draft pick.


In a direct deal for PP, the Packers would have to give up multiple players as well as multiple 1st round picks.



nobody is giving up multiple 1st round picks. I could see 1 and some players but not more
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Re: My Dream Trade (waste of time)

Postby APB » Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:24 am

From the OP, I'd be happy giving up the sixth for DRC and calling it a day.
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Re: My Dream Trade (waste of time)

Postby texas » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:17 am

APB wrote:From the OP, I'd be happy giving up the sixth for DRC and calling it a day.


Yeah. Like hell do we give up multiple 1s and multiple players just for Peterson. For all we know he could suck in a year. Yeah right. The only players I'd trade multiple 1s and players for are Kuechly, Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald. I would have done such a deal for JJ Watt a couple seasons ago, but look what would have happened then.
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Re: My Dream Trade (waste of time)

Postby RingoCStarrQB » Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:32 am

John Hadl for two #1's, two #'2's and one #1.

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Re: My Dream Trade (waste of time)

Postby madcity_matt » Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:55 pm

We have lots of darts in this draft, I’d prefer to keep throwing them at dbs.
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Re: My Dream Trade (waste of time)

Postby APB » Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:34 pm

BF004 wrote:Vontae Davis does make sense if Indy loses another game or two, he will be a FA next offseason.

Davis is intriguing. He's still in his prime and in the final year of his deal.

The Colts also have depth behind him should they choose to deal him. Rashaan Melvin is playing very good ball right now and they are very high on rookie Quincy Wilson.

Both Davis and Melvin will be UFA after this season. The Colts may be inclined to get something for one of them now should they decide not to resign one/both.

The one thing, tho, is the Colts play in the AFC South. They're currently 2-3 yet only one game back in the division. Get Luck back behind center and they may become the instant favorite to win the division. Favorites don't typically deal their best players away mid-season.
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Re: My Dream Trade (waste of time)

Postby YoHoChecko » Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:56 pm

APB wrote:The one thing, tho, is the Colts play in the AFC South. They're currently 2-3 yet only one game back in the division. Get Luck back behind center and they may become the instant favorite to win the division. Favorites don't typically deal their best players away mid-season.

This is the big snag for me in the Davis scenario. As long as Luck is coming back and they tread water, they won't quit on the season early enough for a trade
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Re: My Dream Trade (waste of time)

Postby Pugger » Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:45 pm

If we're gonna dream I say we go get a premier pass rusher instead of a DB. That would camouflage any holes in our secondary.
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