Ebola: Is the end really here?

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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Lord Ben » Wed Oct 08, 2014 12:12 am

Some guy comes into an ER with sweaty palms and touches a few surfaces and who knows who many people have it 3 weeks later. It survives for ~1 hour outside the body. After three weeks how many of them will get tested for Ebola right away and how many will think it's a regular flu and go about their life for a couple days. Not everyone with flu symptoms stay home.

We're in a better position than most countries but don't fool yourselves. One of my great grandfathers brothers died in the 1917 outbreak and my uncle has done a lot of history reading about that time period. Go find some books on that. The government was telling people it was under control while they were stacking up bodies in Chicago (where my great great uncle died).

CDC can say whatever they wants but whether it is or isn't a big deal they're always going to be more concerned about public panic than proper advance warning. They're going to say "we are safe, don't worry" regardless of what the real situation is. The only question is whether or not they're lying or telling the truth.

April, 2014: http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/04 ... so-unusual
Q: How long do you think it will take to contain this Ebola outbreak?
A: We will manage to contain this outbreak in a short amount of time, but it's difficult to say at the moment.

They've been saying it'll be fine for 6+ months. They're still saying it's fine and hard to spread and they'll have it under control soon. I suspect they'll be saying the same thing in 6 more months.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Pckfn23 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:09 am

GreenDay wrote:"And actually Ebola and HIV/AIDS are transmitted pretty much in the same manner, bodily fluids."

Not even close. HIV is a lot harder to infect someone with - you pretty much have to get their blood in your blood stream. If an ebola patient sneezes on you , you can get it. And the experts treating it are not exactly sure how they are contracting it either.


Not even close as well. You do know how HIV/AIDS is mainly transmitted don't you...?


Some guy comes into an ER with sweaty palms and touches a few surfaces and who knows who many people have it 3 weeks later. It survives for ~1 hour outside the body. After three weeks how many of them will get tested for Ebola right away and how many will think it's a regular flu and go about their life for a couple days. Not everyone with flu symptoms stay home.

Sweat has not been confirmed as a transmission agent for Ebola. It has only been found in saliva of those patients with severe symptoms.

Here you go again...:
http://news.sciencemag.org/africa/2014/ ... ey-studies

We're in a better position than most countries but don't fool yourselves. One of my great grandfathers brothers died in the 1917 outbreak and my uncle has done a lot of history reading about that time period. Go find some books on that. The government was telling people it was under control while they were stacking up bodies in Chicago (where my great great uncle died).


You are comparing the flu to Ebola... You do know that influenza was an airborne disease, correct?

FYI, facts, not anecdotes...
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nati ... /16554689/
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Pckfn23 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:18 am

Pretty hard to treat a disease when the locals won't let you... :roll:

On 25 March, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that Guinea's Ministry of Health had reported an outbreak of Ebola virus disease in four southeastern districts. In Guinea, a total of 86 suspected cases, including 59 deaths (case fatality ratio: 68.5%), had been reported as of 24 March.[23] On 31 March, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sent a five-person team to assist Guinea's Ministry of Health and the WHO to lead an international response to the Ebola outbreak.[23]

Thinking that the virus was contained, Médecins Sans Frontières closed its treatment centers in May leaving only a small skeleton staff to handle the Macenta region. However, high numbers of new cases reappeared in the region in late August. According to Marc Poncin, a coordinator for MSF, the new cases were related to persons returning to Guinea from neighbouring Liberia or Sierra Leone.[45]

On 18 September, it was reported that the bodies of a team of Guinean health and government officials, accompanied by journalists, who had been distributing Ebola information and doing disinfection work were found in a latrine in the town of Womey near Nzérékoré.[46] The workers had been murdered by residents of the village after they initially went missing after a riot against the presence of the health education team. Government officials said "the bodies showed signs of being attacked with machetes and clubs" and "three of them had their throats slit."[47]

It has been reported that some people in this area believe that health workers have been purposely spreading the disease to the people, while others believe that the disease does not exist. Riots recently broke out in the regional capital, Nzérékoré, when rumors were spread that people were being contaminated when health workers were spraying a market area to decontaminate it.[48]

WHO estimated on 21 September that Guinea's capacity to treat EVD cases falls short by the equivalent of 40 beds.[10]
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Lord Ben » Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:39 am

Pckfn23 wrote:You are comparing the flu to Ebola... You do know that influenza was an airborne disease, correct?


I'm talking about government pronouncements of "all is well, don't panic" shouldn't be relied on. It's their go-to line for anything.

I'm not comparing transmission methods between the two.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Lord Ben » Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:49 am

Pckfn23 wrote:Sweat has not been confirmed as a transmission agent for Ebola. It has only been found in saliva of those patients with severe symptoms.

Here you go again...:
http://news.sciencemag.org/africa/2014/ ... ey-studies


Here is what that link you just gave me says. You can consider me underwhelmed if it's not "confirmed".

One study examined skin from people who died from Ebola and suggested that sweat may play an important role. “One possible explanation for the role of direct physical contact in transmission is the presence of abundant virus particles and antigens in the skin in and around sweat glands,” the authors concluded. But the most comprehensive analysis done to date notes that risk factors differ depending on the stage of disease, and that people at late-stage disease or death are far more likely to transmit the virus.

Here is the WHO: http://www.afro.who.int/en/clusters-a-p ... fever.html
People can be exposed to Ebola virus from direct physical contact with body fluids like blood, saliva, stool, urine, sweat etc. of an infected person and soiled linen used by a patient.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby GreenDay » Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:05 pm

Pckfn23 wrote:Not even close as well. You do know how HIV/AIDS is mainly transmitted don't you...?


Sweat has not been confirmed as a transmission agent for Ebola. It has only been found in saliva of those patients with severe symptoms.
You are comparing the flu to Ebola... You do know that influenza was an airborne disease, correct?

FYI, facts, not anecdotes...


I'm not sure what your point is, but I'll try to respond. (Edit - sorry, I realized you were responding to more than just my post)

1) I was not comparing Ebola to flu, but to HIV AIDS (they have similar ROs, far lower than flu). In the case of HIV, we know very well how it is transmitted - as far as is known you have to have the virus introduced into the blood stream by pretty specific means. Unless the etiology has changed radically since I last checked, you cannot spread HIV through saliva, sneezing, etc. There is no reason to believe that Ebola is as limited.
2)I never suggested sweat was a means of transmission, but though it hasn't been confirmed, it could be transmitted that way I suppose, since it hasn't been confirmed. I was talking about being transmitted by sneezing (you know that saliva is in sneezes, right?) That mechanism has been demonstrated in model organisms - NHPs
3) The point I was making is that there are significant elements about the virus and it's transmission that remain unknown. I think that's a defensible (and scary) truth.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby GreenDay » Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:25 pm

You don't see doctors treating AIDS patients in hazmat suits and BSL4 containment rooms...


http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-ebola-questions-20141007-story.html#page=1

Yet some scientists who have long studied Ebola say such assurances are premature — and they are concerned about what is not known about the strain now on the loose. It is an Ebola outbreak like none seen before, jumping from the bush to urban areas, giving the virus more opportunities to evolve as it passes through multiple human hosts.

Dr. C.J. Peters, who battled a 1989 outbreak of the virus among research monkeys housed in Virginia and who later led the CDC's most far-reaching study of Ebola's transmissibility in humans, said he would not rule out the possibility that it spreads through the air in tight quarters.

"We just don't have the data to exclude it," said Peters, who continues to research viral diseases at the University of Texas in Galveston.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Pckfn23 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:34 pm

Gotta love fear mongering.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby GreenDay » Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:38 pm

Pckfn23 wrote:Gotta love fear mongering.



I don't. But I am concerned when conclusions are drawn from insufficient data.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Pckfn23 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 3:56 pm

GreenDay wrote:
Pckfn23 wrote:Gotta love fear mongering.



I don't. But I am concerned when conclusions are drawn from insufficient data.


Me too:
said he would not rule out the possibility that it spreads through the air in tight quarters.

"We just don't have the data to exclude it," said Peters, who continues to research viral diseases at the University of Texas in Galveston.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby GreenDay » Wed Oct 08, 2014 4:24 pm

Pckfn23 wrote:
GreenDay wrote:
Pckfn23 wrote:Gotta love fear mongering.



I don't. But I am concerned when conclusions are drawn from insufficient data.


Me too:
said he would not rule out the possibility that it spreads through the air in tight quarters.

"We just don't have the data to exclude it," said Peters, who continues to research viral diseases at the University of Texas in Galveston.


yep, that's the kind of healthy skepticism that makes for good science.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Lord Ben » Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:07 pm

Hopefully it's something else...

http://foxnewsinsider.com/2014/10/08/of ... can-stayed

At a news conference today, Frisco Fire Chief Mark Piland said that a possible Ebola patient had been in the apartment where Dallas Ebola patient Thomas Eric Duncan was staying.

Piland said that while the patient did not have contact with Duncan, the patient did have contact with Duncan’s family members.The patient is not one of the 48 people who are being monitored for contact with Duncan.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Lord Ben » Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:09 pm

Pckfn23 wrote:Gotta love fear mongering.


An easily spreadable disease with a ~50% mortality rate? I think it's impossible to be too cautious or skeptical about something like that.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Pckfn23 » Thu Oct 09, 2014 1:05 am

Easily spreadable... ok... I guess your definition of easily is a bit different than mine.

I agree, take all precautions we can, but statements like the one I highlighted are fear mongering, through and through. As is the article you just posted.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby GreenDay » Thu Oct 09, 2014 2:05 pm

Pckfn23 wrote:Easily spreadable... ok... I guess your definition of easily is a bit different than mine.

I agree, take all precautions we can, but statements like the one I highlighted are fear mongering, through and through. As is the article you just posted.



you mean this:

"said he would not rule out the possibility that it spreads through the air in tight quarters."


I don't think that's fear mongering. The fact is that they don't know for sure. The scientific literature indicates that it can spread this way in NHPs.

Drudgereport is fear mongering. Health officials being honest about what they know and don't know is not.
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