Ebola: Is the end really here?

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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Beagle » Wed Oct 15, 2014 7:36 pm

GreenDay wrote:I don't think anyone who rode on the plane with patient 0 into Dallas got sick. If that remains true, that's a big comfort, because Nurse 2 flew from Dallas to Cleveland and back, and so probably have several other people who right now must be infected. So long as it requires very close contact (droplets that get on you and into your mucosum or blood stream), it's very likely this thing will be reasonably contained. But I still suspect several hundreds may die, mostly due to stupidity, lack of preparation, and lack of common sense (the human condition, no cure for that).


I don't think so either, but the Liberian Government is furious because, apparently, he lied on exit forms at the airport when he left the country. Had he survived, the Liberian Government was going to make him an example that lying on exit forms will have consequences.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nati ... /16591753/

Does patient #2 have a "significant other"? I wonder who she had "contact" with......

I just a recently read an article on the sex trade tourism in Thailand. I guess the government there is very lenient on such things and a lot of Europeans love to go there. I would imagine if Ebola were to hit hard and heavy somewhere, the sex trade industry could be where it got started. Whether it be in Thailand or somewhere else. By the time they realized it, tourists would be infecting family members, co workers, etc.. back home and the women (or men...whoever the sex trade worker is) would be moving along to a whole new clientele that just flew in.

Not good. Speculation and thinking out loud but if I were running a hospital, I would be moving quickly to get the proper training and gear in place.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby GreenDay » Wed Oct 15, 2014 7:42 pm

the stunning thing is that a nurse treating an ebola patient didn't think it was a bad idea to get on a plane and travel around. Did the hospital, the CDC, anyone tell these nurses and support staff to exercise caution. Apparently they were told not much of anything, because they were inventing protocols like wrapping their necks with gauze (of course, if you get biological stuff on the gauze, how you remove it is just as critical to prevent infection...).

The main thing that concerns me is most of the stuff that the CDC or people in charge are doing seems pretty uneven and too often is lacking in critical knowledge.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby GreenDay » Wed Oct 15, 2014 7:45 pm

Beagle wrote:
I just a recently read an article on the sex trade tourism in Thailand. I guess the government there is very lenient on such things and a lot of Europeans love to go there. I would imagine if Ebola were to hit hard and heavy somewhere, the sex trade industry could be where it got started. Whether it be in Thailand or somewhere else. By the time they realized it, tourists would be infecting family members, co workers, etc.. back home and the women (or men...whoever the sex trade worker is) would be moving along to a whole new clientele that just flew in.


well, this is what freaked people out about AIDS, but it turned out the heterosexual risk was far lower. With Ebola, there is not going to be any selective protection based on sexual practices and choices.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby GreenDay » Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:56 pm

The highly respected Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota just advised the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) that “there is scientific and epidemiologic evidence that Ebola virus has the potential to be transmitted via infectious aerosol particles,” including exhaled breath.

CIDRAP is warning that surgical facemasks do not prevent transmission of Ebola, and healthcare professionals (HCP) must immediately be outfitted with full-hooded protective gear and powered air-purifying respirators.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect ... tion-ebola
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby GreenDay » Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:13 pm

just read through the entire CIDRAP document. We are nowhere serious enough about the Ebola threat
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Beagle » Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:47 pm

GreenDay wrote:just read through the entire CIDRAP document. We are nowhere serious enough about the Ebola threat


*Nods in agreement*

You know we have plans to send 4,000 troops into Liberia? Just in case we were not exposing enough of our citizens to it, we'll actually get right to the source and let it infect the military. Because the military is so adept at humanitarian missions and peace keeping. :roll:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/chec ... n-liberia/
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Lord Ben » Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:50 pm

GreenDay wrote:the stunning thing is that a nurse treating an ebola patient didn't think it was a bad idea to get on a plane and travel around. Did the hospital, the CDC, anyone tell these nurses and support staff to exercise caution. Apparently they were told not much of anything, because they were inventing protocols like wrapping their necks with gauze (of course, if you get biological stuff on the gauze, how you remove it is just as critical to prevent infection...).

The main thing that concerns me is most of the stuff that the CDC or people in charge are doing seems pretty uneven and too often is lacking in critical knowledge.


What they were told is that the risks were low and it was just fear mongering to be worried because we're not filthy African savages who touch dead bodies as part of our rituals therefore worrying about it in America was just being a paranoid fear monger. So might as well hop on a plane with a "low grade fever" since it can't happen here!
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Lord Ben » Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:56 pm

Beagle wrote:
GreenDay wrote:just read through the entire CIDRAP document. We are nowhere serious enough about the Ebola threat


*Nods in agreement*

You know we have plans to send 4,000 troops into Liberia? Just in case we were not exposing enough of our citizens to it, we'll actually get right to the source and let it infect the military. Because the military is so adept at humanitarian missions and peace keeping. :roll:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/chec ... n-liberia/


It's probably the best thing we could do in all seriousness. The basic plan is called 70/70/60 and it was to have 70% of ebola patients properly cared for and 70% of burials done properly within 60 days (starting Oct 1) to contain it. It NEEDS a massive surge of manpower to stop the disease in it's tracks and if the Military is what it takes then it'll have to make the attempt.

Duncan came over when there was ~2000 reported cases of Ebola and has gotten 2 people sick so far. Now there is ~8-10k cases (just reported) in Africa and still spreading faster than we can stop it double every 3-4 weeks. That's 20k by November, 40k by early December, etc. It's assumed that the reported cases are only 1/2 to 1/3rd. So perhaps 200k people by the end of the year.

If we don't get a handle on this by the end of the year we're not going to.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby GreenDay » Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:06 pm

will the military guys have positive pressure gear on? Will they get full body decontamination every time before they remove their gear? Will they be housed at secure safe distances from ebola crisis areas? What are the plans for dealing with multiple infected troops? is ZMAP cranking up? Are blood donations going to be taken from African survivors and will this supply be controlled by the military/US government or be up for the highest bidder? do they offer to infected troops first, US citizens next, then Africans? If not, who decides?
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Lord Ben » Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:14 pm

They're constructing treatment facilities and doing blood tests for the locals/aid workers so the doctors in the country can focus on doing what they need to do.

Is it risky? Hell yeah. But you can't let a country melt down with Ebola and not expect it to spread to neighbors, etc etc etc.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Lord Ben » Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:19 pm

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/penny-s ... uth-border
( Marine Corps Gen. John Kelly, commander of the U.S. Southern Command) also spoke about the danger of transnational criminal networks smuggling people into the U.S. that could be infected with Ebola.

He spoke about his recent visit to the border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua with U.S. Embassy personnel where they saw men lined up waiting to enter Nicaragua.

“The embassy person walked over and asked who they were and they told him they were from Liberia and they had been on the road about a week,” Kelly continued. “They met up with the network in Trinidad, and now they were on their way to the United States -- illegally, of course.”

Kelly said the men could make it all the way to New York City within the incubation period for Ebola of 21 days.


They're not only coming to the USA from Liberia via airplane like Duncan did. They're coming up through the long route of South America too as the good General reported. If it spreads there we don't have an ocean (or even a border fence) keeping a couple million South and Central Americans from fleeing north away from an outbreak.

We HAVE to stop it in Africa.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby yoop » Thu Oct 16, 2014 11:10 am

GreenDay wrote:just read through the entire CIDRAP document. We are nowhere serious enough about the Ebola threat


I knew we where in trouble once they said they they felt they had this under control over 2 months ago, or when it was a 2k death rate, now it's over 7 K, now there saying it could be air borne through saliva and breathing, now it seems there could be more suspected cases in the U.S.

one of the worst viruses known to man, and we sit on our hands as it becomes epidemic, to think it would never get out of Africa is mind boggling, complacency by all envolved, we should have been on top of this from the very start
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby APB » Thu Oct 16, 2014 11:41 am

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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby Pckfn23 » Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:14 pm

FYI
Page 2 wrote:I agree, take all precautions we can


yoop, thank you for proving my point.
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Re: Ebola: Is the end really here?

Postby GreenDay » Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:24 pm

Pckfn23 wrote:FYI
Page 2 wrote:I agree, take all precautions we can


yoop, thank you for proving my point.



Yoop proved one of your points? Please elaborate
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