'Murica, 2025

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'Murica, 2025

Postby Waldo » Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:07 pm

As an interesting topic of discussion that probably will tend toward the mild side on contentiousness...

What, if anything, do you see as being different about American government, culture, life, 10 years from now vs. today? Is this change better or worse?
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby Waldo » Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:28 pm

For starters, right now it seems that the long tail on both solar technology have passed, there is no longer any political situation that could slow the train.

Even 5 years ago, solar was easy to chalk up to a pipe dream supported by subsidies and little more. But the times have changed dramatically; subsidized grid parity has been achieved almost nationwide in the last year or two (even ignoring net metering), and unsubsidized grid parity has been achieved in areas. At the rate of price declines, by 2025 solar will unquestionably be the cheapest source of power, so much so that installing anything else really wouldn't make sense. The day is fast approaching where you will be able to choose between the power company or a company that leases solar systems, and the price of power from the solar company is cheaper. This isn't centuries away fantasy, the efficiencies (and price reductions) that the generation of factories already under construction will achieve will make this a reality during the next president's term in many areas.

Solar is passing out of its long tail; even though the installed amount is very low still, the rate at which it is being installed is very high, solar is a major player in new capacity (due to its price competitiveness, it was #2 last year), and since it is still getting cheaper at processor speed gain rates, within a couple years it will easily grab the top spot for capacity additions.

By 2025 a major fraction of all power in the US will be from solar, 20-30% or more.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby BF004 » Thu Apr 02, 2015 11:01 pm

Solar freaking roadways


(check out the video if you havent)
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby raptorman » Fri Apr 03, 2015 12:07 am

In 1980 I was in Finland. Driving down the highway, they point out that on top of all the noise barrier walls they had solar panels that powered the streetlights at night. The US is a little behind on the subject.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby Willink » Fri Apr 03, 2015 3:33 am

Packers with many additional championships
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby Beagle » Fri Apr 03, 2015 4:08 am

More people will be working from home as companies realize they can save a fortune by not renting out very expensive offices and supplying cubicles, desks, phones and all the other amenities needed.

Employees will be happier, more productive and willing to work for less.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby Waldo » Fri Apr 03, 2015 2:10 pm

Willink wrote:Packers with many additional championships


Well that's a given. GB has won 1 in each of of the last two 10 year blocks. 10 years ago Favre was still the GB QB, Sherman was still coach, Ted was just hired, and Mac was 49ers OC.

10 years ago, the first iphone was still more than 2 years away. Its amazing how much can change in 10 years.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby APB » Fri Apr 03, 2015 4:17 pm

How many are prepared to board an airplane with no living, breathing pilot on board? It's coming.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby BF004 » Fri Apr 03, 2015 5:01 pm

We're only 20 years away from having fusion plants. :P Would love to see this become a reality at some point.

I think technology is going to become more interactive in the house, phones and mediums will always be 'on' and you can just talk to them. Things like AmazonEcho is one of the first steps as well as future knockoffs (Should be getting my Amazon Echo in a few weeks =). Will be able to control the temperature of your house, lock doors, start cars, turn on coffee pot all just by talking, not even having to turn your phone on, enter an app, and pressing a button to talk. Your phone in your pocket will always be listening, will generally just need an activation word for it to react to your commands. Echo works like this, you need to say 'Alexa', then it activates, completely hands free. Check out the Amazon Echo video, while likely far from where the technology is headed, a big step, IMO, in house/technology integration. They will also talk back to you, just wake up and ask what the weather is like today and you'll get a response or ask for the ingredients for a recipe, just ask to add something to shopping list without having to go into an app on your phone. Huge step forward, IMO.

Thinking of toying with this idea. You can already go to Menards or Home Depot and get wifi' outlets. Basically they connect to your wifi to turn them on or off via apps or other methords. Put one in in the kitchen. Wake up in the morning, I'll say "Alexa, turn on the coffee pot", the macro I'll have set up for that will simply be to turn on that outlet, the water in my Keurig will already be heated by the time I get downstairs.

A big problem with Echo is that you can really only have it in one place, will have to bring it from room to room/floor to floor. Why I said it far from final techonology. I think eventually very similar tech will just be built into our phones which will obviously just keep progressing at a ridiculous pace.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby Waldo » Fri Apr 03, 2015 6:59 pm

BF004 wrote:We're only 20 years away from having fusion plants. :P Would love to see this become a reality at some point.


I used to think so too, however I've changed my mind over time.

I think when you start to realize the depth of the solar floor, all other energy sources and technologies become largely irrelevant.

It isn't just the staggering pace that the price per watt is dropping, which closely resembles the way processing power increased, battery technology is on a similar course, albeit just a bit behind.

While solar alone has the problem that the sun doesn't always shine (hence it can't really be a primary power source), in conjunction with large amounts of storage, all bets are off it and it can become the energy singularity (where all other forms of energy are by comparison uneconomical).

Like with solar, comparing to grid prices, battery tech and EV's (which is the driver of the price/performance improvements) are always compared to gas fueled vehicles. It seems many always fall into the trap with both of them thinking that comparison point is a zero point. It is not, with either technology. Both technologies are fully capable of blowing past that point. One cannot even really grasp the economic ramifications of a relatively near future world where cars and energy are dirt cheap by today's standards, just what sort of reality that would create.

With batteries, the next iterations of EV's will have very little in the way of cost premium vs gas powered vehicles, especially if tax credits are kept intact. The iteration after that, in the early 20's, will most likely see cost parity with no credits.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby texas » Sat Apr 04, 2015 12:48 am

I bought a book by Ray Kurzweil that was written in 2004 I believe. Fantastic Voyage.

In it, he splits up future technologies into categories based on when they will exist. He says it all matter-of-factly as if it isn't really a question-humans will definitely have solved X in the next Y years.

Anyway, it has been 11 years since he published this, and looking at his 10-years category (i.e., technological advancements we should have had by last year), you can see the majority of them don't exist, and really they aren't much further than they were when he wrote the book.

The point is, with regards to solar, fusion, whatever, I'll believe it when I see it.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby raptorman » Sun Apr 05, 2015 4:39 pm

APB wrote:How many are prepared to board an airplane with no living, breathing pilot on board? It's coming.

Not me. I will never do it. The pilot in front is the best safety device in the plane. Yes they make mistakes, but having some idiot with a joystick in some room 1,000 miles away whose ass is not on the line if the plane crashes will not cut it for me.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby raptorman » Sun Apr 05, 2015 4:48 pm

Waldo wrote:
BF004 wrote:We're only 20 years away from having fusion plants. :P Would love to see this become a reality at some point.


I used to think so too, however I've changed my mind over time.

I think when you start to realize the depth of the solar floor, all other energy sources and technologies become largely irrelevant.

It isn't just the staggering pace that the price per watt is dropping, which closely resembles the way processing power increased, battery technology is on a similar course, albeit just a bit behind.

While solar alone has the problem that the sun doesn't always shine (hence it can't really be a primary power source), in conjunction with large amounts of storage, all bets are off it and it can become the energy singularity (where all other forms of energy are by comparison uneconomical).

Like with solar, comparing to grid prices, battery tech and EV's (which is the driver of the price/performance improvements) are always compared to gas fueled vehicles. It seems many always fall into the trap with both of them thinking that comparison point is a zero point. It is not, with either technology. Both technologies are fully capable of blowing past that point. One cannot even really grasp the economic ramifications of a relatively near future world where cars and energy are dirt cheap by today's standards, just what sort of reality that would create.

With batteries, the next iterations of EV's will have very little in the way of cost premium vs gas powered vehicles, especially if tax credits are kept intact. The iteration after that, in the early 20's, will most likely see cost parity with no credits.

One thing about batteries. They eventually have to be recharged, and people have a tendency to forget how the power is made to recharge the batteries.

The most fuel efficient use of power currently available to my knowledge, other than solar, would be a generator/battery system powered by a small turbine engine. The Turbine burns almost 100% of fuel put into it and can run on damn near anything.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby Waldo » Mon Apr 06, 2015 7:47 pm

One technology that I think is going to have a massive impact on the near future in very unpredicatble ways is the sort of computing done by IBM's Watson and its predecessors. Not really artificial intelligence, but a much better bridge between the limitations of language and the vast infinity of data that exists.

Its first baby steps of usefulness are in medical fields, where it can digest research and cases far beyond what is humanly possible.

But, anything where it is hard to formulate an information search but easy via natural language. One example, P-F-R has vast amounts of football info at their fingertips, but only a limited amount of search possibilities. A natural language search would make it simple to parse vast amounts of data. The other day I was looking for a way to rank draft classes team by team within a year and overall historically by weighted EV, which would arguably be the best way currently in existence to rank drafts objectively. The data is there, but not a way to pose that query. A natural language data parser like Watson would make that uber simple. "Rank all individual team drafts by wEV" "Rank all draft classes by wEV" "Rank all of the team drafts from the 2010 draft by wEV". Or some of the decisive W/L stuff I do with their datasets. Its a ton of work to do it by hand, a Watson type engine could do it in milliseconds.

Expand that to all data everywhere, and the possibilities are incredible.

"What is most likely the optimal protein intake for an athlete to grow muscle?" There is so much research and data out there on the subject, and a million different opinions, yet all of human experience on the subject could be quite literally crunched into a single number representing the highest probability point; right now one can't even identify the actual scientific consensus, it depends on who you ask.

Heath overall is where it will really help, because more than anything the problem is way too much data and too many opinions for anyone to make much sense of. Finding the real consensus (or average point) on a lot of issues would have a ton of value.
Last edited by Waldo on Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby Lord Ben » Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:07 pm

Nationally in debt up to our eyeballs, still arguing about the same stupid $#!!.
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