'Murica, 2025

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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby BF004 » Thu May 28, 2015 9:08 pm

get louder at lambeau wrote: I can install a system today that can allow you to use your smartphone to arm/disarm your alarm, adjust your thermostat, unlock your door, turn on/off whatever lights and appliances, and probably about whatever else you can think of. If you want to pay for it. But why would you?.


I can as well, it just isn't very well standardized yet. Once the technology gets a little better and standardized formats/interfaces/software develop, it will be the only way to go.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby get louder at lambeau » Fri May 29, 2015 12:19 am

BF004 wrote:
get louder at lambeau wrote: I can install a system today that can allow you to use your smartphone to arm/disarm your alarm, adjust your thermostat, unlock your door, turn on/off whatever lights and appliances, and probably about whatever else you can think of. If you want to pay for it. But why would you?.


I can as well, it just isn't very well standardized yet. Once the technology gets a little better and standardized formats/interfaces/software develop, it will be the only way to go.


Not sure what you mean that it isn't very well standardized. What are you looking for as far as standardization?

And why will it be the only way to go? As I said, I don't see the need at all for most people. If I thought there would be a demand, I would gear my company up to focus on this stuff. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I see it.

Manufacturers have been pushing automation products for over a decade. The demand just isn't there in my experience, and I don't see what needs are really addressed by these automation toys. Turning up your furnace from your smartphone in Hawaii before you come home really isn't much of a mass marketable feature, IMO. Not enough gained to offset the costs, even if the cost is very low.

What is it you look forward to about using this automation? What features would you most like to see?
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby dsr » Sat May 30, 2015 10:25 pm

BF004 wrote:
get louder at lambeau wrote: I can install a system today that can allow you to use your smartphone to arm/disarm your alarm, adjust your thermostat, unlock your door, turn on/off whatever lights and appliances, and probably about whatever else you can think of. If you want to pay for it. But why would you?.


I can as well, it just isn't very well standardized yet. Once the technology gets a little better and standardized formats/interfaces/software develop, it will be the only way to go.


It's thirty years since TVs had remote control devices, to turn them off and on, change the channel, adjust the colour, set which programmes to record, etc. etc. And what's happened in the next thirty years? With all the advances in technology since then, has no-one figured out how to extend this to switching on the oven, turning up the thermostat, turning on the computer, switching on the lights, boiling the kettle? All those functions are easier to handle than the TV. The technology has been there for 30 years. Why aren't we using it?

I think it's because it isn't worth the effort. Moving about the house to press a switch is not an unreasonable imposition.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby raptorman » Sun May 31, 2015 1:54 am

BF004 wrote:
get louder at lambeau wrote: I can install a system today that can allow you to use your smartphone to arm/disarm your alarm, adjust your thermostat, unlock your door, turn on/off whatever lights and appliances, and probably about whatever else you can think of. If you want to pay for it. But why would you?.


I can as well, it just isn't very well standardized yet. Once the technology gets a little better and standardized formats/interfaces/software develop, it will be the only way to go.

And I can find a hacker that can hack into that system and take total control of everything you have. :D
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby wallyuwl » Sun May 31, 2015 11:38 pm

I'm on the side of all this automation is not the wave of the future for the average person. The cost/benefit just isn't there. I can control my AV receiver with my smartphone. I have the app. I don't use it and instead use the remote control. I can open and close the blinds with a wand, that doesn't need to be automated or voice controlled. Most of these things are more trouble than they are worth and something else to break and have to fix, or even worse spend a good amount of money to have someone else fix. And I'm a millennial.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby Waldo » Mon Jun 01, 2015 3:00 pm

Home automation is nothing new. I have a and am way into Midentury Modern Architecture; low voltage home automation controls go back all the way to that era (1950-1965); its real cool when you find a home with original functioning controls, but its real rare (intercoms aren't, but everything else is).

It didn't catch on then because it wasn't particularly useful, at least not for the cost.

An integrated HVAC system, with zones, power shades (esp for skylights), and controllable fans would be useful (and is used in commercial settings), but outside of that, the cost benefits just aren't there.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby Satori » Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:17 am

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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby get louder at lambeau » Thu Jun 18, 2015 4:00 pm

So, we talked a little about some of the positives of ten years from now. How about some potential negatives?

Personally, I think that our political system poses huge challenges. Political bribery is basically legal, if executed properly, with a wink and nudge. There appears to be no fix on the horizon. Our Federal Government seems to vacillate between glaring corruption and obvious incompetence, with a healthy dose of partisan dysfunction added for good measure. We can't really count on them to solve much of anything, IMO.

We have major challenges economically and especially with regard to employment, where we face demographic issues like the Baby Boomers retiring and stressing healthcare and entitlement costs, international labor competition from much cheaper, yet talented, rivals in China and India, and automation, which should continue to expand and replace workers at places other than assembly lines and store checkouts. Retail has been decimated by competition from the interwebs and we now have a perennially slow economy. Money is being concentrated in the hands of a few at a very rapid pace, leaving the majority with less to spend to drive our traditionally consumption-based economy. And then there is the global proliferation of debt, which is siphoning money out of the productive economy and into the financial economy and has pulled what should be future demand forward.

Did they really solve the core problems that almost took down the global economy in 2008, or did they just delay an implosion? I'm not optimistic. And history shows a link between economic problems and wars.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby Waldo » Thu Jun 18, 2015 4:59 pm

get louder at lambeau wrote:Money is being concentrated in the hands of a few at a very rapid pace, leaving the majority with less to spend to drive our traditionally consumption-based economy.


It seems to me the movement is growing stronger and stronger to in fact move away somewhat from a consumption based economy.

A lot of people, especially younger people, are rejecting the: school as much as you can, to get paid as much as you can, then work as much as you can, to buy as much stuff as possible and fill your money bin as full as possible model of western life. Everyone really just wants a happy life, and its more true today than it has been in a long time that money can't buy you happiness. Heck most of the 1% lead utterly miserable lives, and more and more people are realizing this.

Where you can see this playing out most strongly is that younger generations actually prefer smaller houses. Along with this preference is a drive to avoid excessive acquisition of things, especially new things.

There is definitely a movement away from mega culture.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby Waldo » Tue Jul 21, 2015 4:40 pm

Playing off my last point here and something I posted in another thread.

I think a dramatic shift in housing is about to occur. Every industry BUT housing has been massively transformed by modern manufacturing; robotics, computerized cnc, 3d printing, etc... It has increased quality and decreased costs in every other sector. Its what makes things like a smartphone even possible.

High design is grappling with this issue, working out a modular approach to housing. Sure the trailer home or ever fancy double wide has been around a long time, but noone would ever confuse that with being nice. There is a lot of effort being put into container homes, and making them uber nice. Plus the tiny home fad is really working out space efficiency.

The ingredients are there. Someone will take some stunning container home ideas (or pilfer the architects working on them), generalize to a new modular system related to containers but specific for housing, build a factory to pump out these modules cheaply, and fill the space efficiently using tiny house concepts. In the end producing extremely desireable homes at prices well below what traditional developers can do.

This is coming, almost without a doubt.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby Waldo » Thu Aug 13, 2015 5:10 pm

I must say, as an optimistic futurist at heart, this Alphabet thing (what Google is doing) is pretty much the greatest thing ever, and I hope more of the worlds wealthy get on board with the concept that sort of started with Musk, now Brin and Page are along for the ride.

If you don't know the concept, its basically: giving poor people money doesn't solve anything, despite being feel good charity it does society and humanity very little good. A more effective use of LOL money for the good of society is via moon-shot technological innovation, the derivative effects have far more reach and lead to a more permanent lift of all boats. If one removes the expectation of profit from this sort of technological advance, the chance for innovation is far greater (the gov't used to be the one that did this sort of thing). Alphabet is basically a charity for the technological advancement of mankind.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby Waldo » Thu Aug 13, 2015 5:41 pm

As a sidenote, I read a statement/question recently that made it clear just how much of a disservice the media and politics has done to us.

"Would you rather live in a world where you make 100K/yr in 1980 or one where you make 50K/yr today"

An interesting thought question. That $$ in 1980 is in the high middle class/low wealthy area, whereas the today part of the question is lower middle class.

In the 1980 side of the equation, you'd have a very nice house, and would be able to drive a very nice car, and could likely travel a good bit. On the flipside, all phones are tethered, you have about 20 channels on your cable TV (tho MTV does play videos), and that TV is a small little tube thing, which you could also play Pack Man or Pong on. In home movies did not yet really exist. Computers weren't yet really useful and the internet is a long way away. All photos are on film cameras.

In the today side of the equation, your home is definitely quite modest, as is your car. You probably don't travel much, if at all. However you have all the conveniences of modern life; a flatscreen HDTV with hundreds of channels and a smartphone. You want to buy something, go online and get prices near unheard of in stores, and it shows up on your doorstep in a couple days. And crime is much lower.

We are continuously bombarded by a narrative of how awful everything is going (politically both sides do this, as does the press, optimism has no voice). Yet as this thought experiment proves, things have in fact improved a lot. Even if you would take the 1980 life, were you to even the $$ or even more extreme, even the money in today's dollars (aka inflation corrected), today is a hands down winner, its not even close. A person from the 1950's would view today as a utopia. Yet so many people walk through life utterly pessimistic about the world around them.

10 years from now, in 2025, life in America s going to be damn awesome, better in every way than it is today. And a significant chunk is going to be whining and moaning, just how it always is, because optimism is gone from our discourse.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby xDD80x » Fri Aug 14, 2015 1:23 am

Waldo wrote:"Would you rather live in a world where you make 100K/yr in 1980 or one where you make 50K/yr today"

An interesting thought question. That $$ in 1980 is in the high middle class/low wealthy area, whereas the today part of the question is lower middle class.


If I could have my memory wiped my happiness would likely be higher in 1980. Reality is people are happier when they have it better than their peers.

If I make 45K and all my coworkers make 30, I'm king $#!!. I make 50K and the coworkers make 75K, im slighted. I had a professor who dedicated a huge part of his life to studying this and it seems to apply to individuals and groups.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby wallyuwl » Sat Aug 15, 2015 5:26 am

Waldo wrote:We are continuously bombarded by a narrative of how awful everything is going (politically both sides do this, as does the press, optimism has no voice). Yet as this thought experiment proves, things have in fact improved a lot. Even if you would take the 1980 life, were you to even the $$ or even more extreme, even the money in today's dollars (aka inflation corrected), today is a hands down winner, its not even close.


I'd take a 1980 lifestyle and more money than today's lifestyle and less money. Technology does not equal happiness or even quality of life. The world is a lot different, and IMO worse, place now than in 1980. Well, lets say 1985, 1980 was the end of the Carter years and by '85 inflation and interest rates were both down to normal levels again.
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Re: 'Murica, 2025

Postby Waldo » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:22 pm

Interesting article about peak oil and how it is much closer than many realize, because the peak is not on the supply side, but rather the demand.

https://medium.com/@amorylovins/the-tro ... ad430eff10

Great quote about the pace of change of innovation:
Stanford innovation lecturer Tony Seba reminds us of disruption’s brutal speed by comparing two photos looking down New York’s Fifth Avenue in the Easter Parade. In 1900, you must look hard to find the first car. In 1913, you must look harder to find the last horse. The horse-and-buggy industry thought it had many decades to adapt. Henry Ford thought differently, and won.


I always make this same point about football, but it applies to pretty much everything subject to market forces; change occurs much faster than practically anyone believes possible.
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