The Little War in Syria

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The Little War in Syria

Postby Beagle » Fri Sep 25, 2015 4:28 am

Syria is a complete mess and getting worse by the month. I'm not exactly sure what strategy is best, but whatever we are doing there, we either need to do a lot more, or leave the area almost completely. It doesn't really appear that any side is worth supporting as 3 distinct factions are fighting: Syrian Government, ISIL, and Syrian rebels.

The Russians have just flown fighters in and tried to sneak more in (flying with transponders off) without anyone knowing. Not sure who exactly they are going to support but it looks like the Syrian Government. Which means they will also be helping us with targeting ISIL, only by default. That means they are also on the side of Iran and Hezbollah. I see the Russians as expanding their influence in the Middle East that may lead to direct intervention. Unless he is content to sell the weapons and watch the place burn.

Iraq made a big mistake by not signing a new agreement with the US to keep bases in Iraq and maintain a larger military presence. ISIL was then able to actually seize equipment and munitions and use them in Syria as well as take over parts of Iraq. Now Iraq is almost worse off under their new Democratic Government because Iraq is still mired in secretarial violence. Instead, they should be uniting as "Iraqis" but they can't let the past go, especially with how Saddam treated the majority. So they fight each other and buckle under to terrorist groups.

Obama is way out of his depth here and I think is perceived as weak by the other nations leaders, especially Russia. I am not sure exactly what he can do. If he supports the rebels (I think he pledged $500 million in support) he is in direct conflict with the Russians and Syrian Government and this will take away from fighting our real enemy, ISIL. Supporting the government is not an option. That leaves supporting ISIL or a 4th faction that we introduce to the war torn area. Probably not the best idea.

Obama might be best off to meet with the leaders in Iraq and convince them to reintroduce the American military to seize control of the country and return it to the current Iraqi government. Then give Syria humanitarian aid and help stem the tide of refugees fleeing. The problem is, I don't think Obama is strong enough in Foreign Policy to make any sort of a difference. Or to even know how to proceed. The problem is, something decisive needs to be done.

What to do.....?
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Re: The Little War in Syria

Postby Lord Ben » Fri Sep 25, 2015 9:14 am

Beagle wrote:Obama is way out of his depth here and I think is perceived as weak by the other nations leaders,

Only perceived as weak? I think they have an accurate assessment of his national security skills/priorities.

Beagle wrote:What to do.....?


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Re: The Little War in Syria

Postby Papa John » Fri Sep 25, 2015 5:35 pm

Obama might be best off to meet with the leaders in Iraq and convince them to reintroduce the American military to seize control of the country and return it to the current Iraqi government.


You really have to wonder about the status of our relationship with Iraqi leaders right now. Aside from the fact that I don't think Obama would ever do this, I can't even imagine how that conversation would go. "Sorry we abandoned your country during its most vulnerable state, paving the way for anarchy and an ISIS takeover. Can we come back?"


What to do.....?


I think if the U.S. is going to involve ourselves, we need to have a "go big or go home" mentality. If we intervene, our best bet is probably to just kill off all of the factions. Taking sides isn't going to help IMO. Ordinarily this wouldn't be a problem, but now that Russia has intervened, it would inevitably lead to a game of chicken between Obama and Putin. Not sure I'd bet on our hand in that game...

So our best option might just be to do.... nothing.
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Re: The Little War in Syria

Postby wallyuwl » Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:48 am

Papa John wrote:So our best option might just be to do.... nothing.


As is almost always the case with getting involved with disputes that don't involve the USA.
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Re: The Little War in Syria

Postby Lord Ben » Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:50 am

I think our only option is to stand by while Putin does it... He's got the best position with boots on the ground. The situation ends with Putin/Assad winning or us fighting against them through proxies, but honestly who would trust us as an ally anymore in the region?
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Re: The Little War in Syria

Postby Beagle » Sun Sep 27, 2015 11:30 pm

Iraq just signed a deal with Russia, intelligence and security cooperation deal (includes Iran and Syria as well) to fight the Islamic State. It's an agreement that strengthens the ties between all 4 countries. Expect increasing Russian military involvement in conflicts in Syria (happening now anyway) and Iraq.

Our involvement will decrease considerably as the Russians put boots and weapons in Iraq now. Basically, they are pushing out us out and will start to be the influence in the region. I can't imagine Israel will be happy about this. That firmly places Iran and Russia in cooperation and moving into Iraq. I wonder what countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, UAE and others are thinking.

We actually might be best off leaving them (Russia and Iran) those messes (Syria and Iraq) and uniting the other countries under our influence. It should be fairly easy (with good leadership) since they already hate Iran. The problem will be trying to unite them with Israel in defense of their common foe.

I feel like things are returning back to the Cold War.
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Re: The Little War in Syria

Postby Waldo » Wed Sep 30, 2015 2:28 pm

Accelerate the transition to a "green" economy, especially in the area of autos, aka accelerate reaching the energy independence point, and Mideast politics will cease to be part of the Things We Care About™; Mideast wars and crises mattering little more to us than they do in Africa (except for Israel and nuclear proliferation, these little conflicts however would become meaningless).

Our intervention in this sort of thing only makes matters worse, we just don't belong. At least Russia shares a continent.
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Re: The Little War in Syria

Postby dirty sanchez » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:26 am

Waldo wrote:Accelerate the transition to a "green" economy, especially in the area of autos, aka accelerate reaching the energy independence point, and Mideast politics will cease to be part of the Things We Care About™; Mideast wars and crises mattering little more to us than they do in Africa (except for Israel and nuclear proliferation, these little conflicts however would become meaningless).

Our intervention in this sort of thing only makes matters worse, we just don't belong. At least Russia shares a continent.
you really believe that the Isreali influence in this country would allow us to turn our backs on the Middle East? I don't see that happening.

But with Russia now joining in the fray, our best bet would be to help ISIS if we aren't already doing it behind the scenes. Keep them all fighting each other so they don't fight us, and keep Russia stuck in another long protracted war which will draw them away from confronting us.
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Re: The Little War in Syria

Postby BF004 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:26 pm

Aside from the fact we don't like Assad, he isn't a threat, we dislike ISIS a lot more, at least is the public perception we want. So why would we possibly be upset that Russia is doing our role of intervening and bombing ISIS?

Seems like everyone hates ISIS, we like the 'moderate rebels' which seem somewhat indistinguishable from ISIS or Al Qaeda.

Just really hope we stay the hell out of all this all together.
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Re: The Little War in Syria

Postby Pckfn23 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:58 pm

BF004 wrote:
Just really hope we stay the hell out of all this all together.

Yep
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Re: The Little War in Syria

Postby get louder at lambeau » Thu Oct 01, 2015 7:50 pm

Waldo wrote:Our intervention in this sort of thing only makes matters worse, we just don't belong. At least Russia shares a continent.


Also, at least Russia was invited by the government of Syria. They are there LEGALLY. We are not. We just slimed our way across the border under the false pretense that we were only getting involved to "fight terrorism", when our real main goal was to overthrow yet another government.

Overthrowing the Syrian government was a goal for some in the USG long before ISIS even existed. Long before they alleged that the government used WMDs. It predates the Iraq War. It even predates 9/11 by at least a decade. Don't take my word for it though, ask the former Supreme Commander of NATO, General Wesley Clark, how far back the origins of this plan go. -

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Re: The Little War in Syria

Postby Beagle » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:10 pm

BF004 wrote:Aside from the fact we don't like Assad, he isn't a threat] we dislike ISIS a lot more, at least is the public perception we want. So why would we possibly be upset that Russia is doing our role of intervening and bombing ISIS?

Seems like everyone hates ISIS, we like the 'moderate rebels' which seem somewhat indistinguishable from ISIS or Al Qaeda.

Just really hope we stay the hell out of all this all together.


Yea, I think we are just "mad" at him for human rights issues as well as him linking his Spring movement to Hezbollah and his links to Iran. We have had sanctions in place since 2011 since we want him to be more "Democratic" and less of a Dictator. It seems like every time we want a Dictator removed and a Democracy put in place, it ends in an epic failure because ultimately, they can't govern themselves without a ruthless leader at the top.

I think their unemployment sits at around 45-50% right now so they have a lot of issues including the civil war raging and ISIL as well as the US backed rebels. I agree with you, the US should leave the area (Iraq and Syria) and let the Russians and Iran sort it out. That puts Israel in a precarious position though with possibly more resources dedicated to her destruction.

So, I doubt we pull out so we'll just add to the carnage.
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Re: The Little War in Syria

Postby dirty sanchez » Fri Oct 02, 2015 3:20 am

BF004 wrote:Aside from the fact we don't like Assad, he isn't a threat, we dislike ISIS a lot more, at least is the public perception we want. So why would we possibly be upset that Russia is doing our role of intervening and bombing ISIS?

Seems like everyone hates ISIS, we like the 'moderate rebels' which seem somewhat indistinguishable from ISIS or Al Qaeda.

Just really hope we stay the hell out of all this all together.
They're all $#!! crazy over there. No such thing as moderate. As long as they're killing each other and not us, that's a good thing. But the last thing we want is for Iran to become a super power in the region so we need to do what we can to make sure that doesn't happen.
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Re: The Little War in Syria

Postby yoop » Fri Oct 02, 2015 9:57 am

get louder at lambeau wrote:
Waldo wrote:Our intervention in this sort of thing only makes matters worse, we just don't belong. At least Russia shares a continent.


Also, at least Russia was invited by the government of Syria. They are there LEGALLY. We are not. We just slimed our way across the border under the false pretense that we were only getting involved to "fight terrorism", when our real main goal was to overthrow yet another government.

Overthrowing the Syrian government was a goal for some in the USG long before ISIS even existed. Long before they alleged that the government used WMDs. It predates the Iraq War. It even predates 9/11 by at least a decade. Don't take my word for it though, ask the former Supreme Commander of NATO, General Wesley Clark, how far back the origins of this plan go. -



It goes back even further then this with the ousting of the shah of Iran, I like how he fits in that GW wasn't even elected by the people, instead was elected by the supreme court, thats basically a cou de ta, but I degress.

I buy what Clark says because Cheney and Rumsfeld both wanted to build a Military base in Iraq as soon as we took it over, there plan was to never leave Iraq, but to set up Military command to monitor the whole region, this has always been about oil, and protecting our ability to control who gets how much, the USG will convince us it has to do with humanitarian aid, or stopping aggression, but you don't see us sending troops to protect anyone from a country without OIL.

there is big money to be made by select defense contractors, and rebuild Co.s such as Haliburton, we played that game for 13 years in Viet Nam, the war profiteers want to drag out Iraq just as long as congress will allow them, who wouldn't, rebuilding a country is such a cash cow, can you just imagine the money made by a select group of co.s rebuilding Japan after WW11, no one heres much about that, but it had to be big.

the bully in the play ground has no true friends, that should be easy for anyone to understand, well we are the bully in the middle east, and the way you attack a bully is with deception, deceit, you hit him when his back is turned and use terror tactics, just as we've seen the last 20 years against the American people, our leaders started these problems, and now we are paying the price for there acts of greed.
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Re: The Little War in Syria

Postby Waldo » Fri Oct 02, 2015 3:09 pm

yoop wrote:I buy what Clark says because Cheney and Rumsfeld both wanted to build a Military base in Iraq as soon as we took it over, there plan was to never leave Iraq, but to set up Military command to monitor the whole region, this has always been about oil, and protecting our ability to control who gets how much, the USG will convince us it has to do with humanitarian aid, or stopping aggression, but you don't see us sending troops to protect anyone from a country without OIL.


As I said..

Waldo wrote:Accelerate the transition to a "green" economy, especially in the area of autos, aka accelerate reaching the energy independence point, and Mideast politics will cease to be part of the Things We Care About™; Mideast wars and crises mattering little more to us than they do in Africa (except for Israel and nuclear proliferation, these little conflicts however would become meaningless).


Go get yourself a Leaf or a Tesla or a Volt if you want the US to stop giving a crap about the mideast. Its all about the oil. We couldn't care less about this sort of thing when it happens in Africa or SE Asia.

When oil supply ceases to be a strategic defense issue for the US, the mideast in general will cease to be a strategic defense issue for the US.

As much as we worry about Iran getting a nuke, the thought being that they'd actually use it, what would be the endgame? Do we really believe that the nation would turn itself into a suicide bomber? Using a nuke would lead to complete internationally backed annihilation. They'd pretty much turn every world power against them, and every world power would be forced to get involved, because it is a threat to everyone. The coalition to stop Saddam the first time would have nothing on what would be brought to bear. The only question would be if using a nuke green lights nuclear retaliation. We don't really think about it anymore, but Iranians absolutely live in a world similar to the cold war (if not even more extreme). That public and gov't is fully aware that the US has nuclear armed subs and cruisers in the gulf aimed at them.
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