Jameis is an obvious bust

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Jameis is an obvious bust

Postby texas » Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:55 am

I don't see why everyone is debating Mariota/Winston like it's some sort of toss-up. Winston obviously will be a bust. He's a moron. When was the last time a flaming idiot became a good long term QB?

When was the last time you listened to a successful QB give a press conference and he wasn't well-spoken? Favre maybe? Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Wilson. Hell, even other Manning, Flacco, Roethlisberger. All SB winners. All not morons.

A big-talking QB who makes mistake after mistake and says stupid $#!!? I don't understand why people can't see it.

Maybe I can see why they'd put Mariota on the same level- he could be a bust too. I'm not sold at all, but at least he has a chance. I don't think either of them will be solid QBs. But Winston for sure won't be. Frankly I think my boy Petty has a better shot than either of them.
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Re: Jameis is an obvious bust

Postby Ghost_Lombardi » Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:38 pm

From most accounts his football IQ is high. He got and gets good grades too. That said, he does often seem inarticulate and clearly he's made a lot of bad choices. Teenagers do that.

So I've watched and rewatched nearly all the game cut ups of his over the last two years. The problems I see are twofold:

(1) He throws the ball with an extremely elongated delivery. It is a baseball wind up. It is a serious mechanical problem that will need to be fixed, as it adds a lot of time for DBs to be able to jump the route. This is just a matter of work and work ethic. From most accounts Winston does and will put in the time.

(2) He has a very hard time reading underneath zone coverages. That is where most of his picks come from. He threw a ton of them this year. The problem is exacerbated when there is pass rush pressure. NFL DEF coordinators find weaknesses and attack then relentlessly. Winston will have to improve in this area or he will be a bust.

--

As for Mariota, I think he's far, far better than he gets credit for, because he can run, and it is an easy pigeon hole for lazy writers. I fully expect him to be a Top 10 QB for the next decade plus starting his second year in the league.
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Re: Jameis is an obvious bust

Postby GeMatt » Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:21 am

I kind of have that same feeling about this Jameis guy. Forgot his name, but there was this big physical QB drafted by the Raiders a few years ago who completely bombed. I mean like in and out in 3 to 4 years.

This is supposed to be the worst draft for QBs after these first two guys are taken. I have a feeling there is a guy taken in the later rounds who may be better than both of them.
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Re: Jameis is an obvious bust

Postby Ghost_Lombardi » Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:38 am

GeMatt wrote:I kind of have that same feeling about this Jameis guy. Forgot his name, but there was this big physical QB drafted by the Raiders a few years ago who completely bombed. I mean like in and out in 3 to 4 years.

This is supposed to be the worst draft for QBs after these first two guys are taken. I have a feeling there is a guy taken in the later rounds who may be better than both of them.


Grayson and Hundley.

After that I don't think there is even a back up quality QB this year.
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Re: Jameis is an obvious bust

Postby texas » Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:07 am

Ghost_Lombardi wrote:
GeMatt wrote:I kind of have that same feeling about this Jameis guy. Forgot his name, but there was this big physical QB drafted by the Raiders a few years ago who completely bombed. I mean like in and out in 3 to 4 years.

This is supposed to be the worst draft for QBs after these first two guys are taken. I have a feeling there is a guy taken in the later rounds who may be better than both of them.


Grayson and Hundley.

After that I don't think there is even a back up quality QB this year.


I don't trust anything from UCLA. Everything about that school is overrated.

As for Jameis, I know nothing about his football IQ or grades, but I just base my opinion on the words that come out of his mouth and his actions, and I just can't remember a successful QB like that ever.
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Re: Jameis is an obvious bust

Postby Ghost_Lombardi » Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:04 pm

texas wrote:
Ghost_Lombardi wrote:
GeMatt wrote:I kind of have that same feeling about this Jameis guy. Forgot his name, but there was this big physical QB drafted by the Raiders a few years ago who completely bombed. I mean like in and out in 3 to 4 years.

This is supposed to be the worst draft for QBs after these first two guys are taken. I have a feeling there is a guy taken in the later rounds who may be better than both of them.


Grayson and Hundley.

After that I don't think there is even a back up quality QB this year.


I don't trust anything from UCLA. Everything about that school is overrated.

As for Jameis, I know nothing about his football IQ or grades, but I just base my opinion on the words that come out of his mouth and his actions, and I just can't remember a successful QB like that ever.


Ah, heck, I remember a guy just tryin' to make a play..... :wink:
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Re: Jameis is an obvious bust

Postby Jim T » Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:49 pm

I don't know all that much about evaluating players. Having said that I would be leery about taking either QB with the first pick.

Something about Jameis that just bugs me. I've watched him play a few times. Some of he wow plays he makes with his feet just won't happen in the NFL. Sometimes I think those type of highlights tend to make people believe that QB's can do it at the next level also.

Trent Dilfer did a short analysis on Mariota. He showed how Mariota did pretty well throwing to his first read. But everytime he came off the first read and had to go through his progression, his passes we not accurate at all. I bet being a running QB helped mask that deficiency. We know running QB's in the league don't seem to last very long. What I don't know is if deficiency Dilfer pointed out can be fixed in the NFL.
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Re: Jameis is an obvious bust

Postby Ghost_Lombardi » Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:27 pm

I couldn't disagree more with Dilfer.

Here's two plays from the CAL game this year. In the first he comes off his first read (down the left sideline) and works all the back to other side of the field, for a TD. In the second he goes through his reads, faces pressure in the pocket, evades, keeps his eyes downfield, and throws a strike. Jim, I think some of these TV guys are just plain lazy.

So, I'm having trouble making the GIFs.

The first play is from around 00:41 to 00:53, the second 2:14 to 2:22.

There is a third play, from 4:51 to 4:58 - Mariota stands tall and calm in the pocket and he clearly comes off his first read to a throw a TD across the middle, hitting a WR in stride. Mariota isn't perfect, but he's not a project who never had to make reads either. Unlike many "running QBs" he most often looks to pass first and he keeps his eyes up when evading pressure. He reminds me a whole lot of Aaron Rodgers, to be honest. Lighting release, nimble, tries to extend plays with his legs. Sure, Oregon has designed running plays that took advantage of his speed, but Mariota is still a franchise calibre QB prospect without those plays.

Link to the game I'm talking about: http://draftbreakdown.com/video/marcus- ... -cal-2014/
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Re: Jameis is an obvious bust

Postby Jim T » Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:05 pm

Ghost_Lombardi wrote:I couldn't disagree more with Dilfer.

Here's two plays from the CAL game this year. In the first he comes off his first read (down the left sideline) and works all the back to other side of the field, for a TD. In the second he goes through his reads, faces pressure in the pocket, evades, keeps his eyes downfield, and throws a strike. Jim, I think some of these TV guys are just plain lazy.

So, I'm having trouble making the GIFs.

The first play is from around 00:41 to 00:53, the second 2:14 to 2:22.

There is a third play, from 4:51 to 4:58 - Mariota stands tall and calm in the pocket and he clearly comes off his first read to a throw a TD across the middle, hitting a WR in stride. Mariota isn't perfect, but he's not a project who never had to make reads either. Unlike many "running QBs" he most often looks to pass first and he keeps his eyes up when evading pressure. He reminds me a whole lot of Aaron Rodgers, to be honest. Lighting release, nimble, tries to extend plays with his legs. Sure, Oregon has designed running plays that took advantage of his speed, but Mariota is still a franchise calibre QB prospect without those plays.

Link to the game I'm talking about: http://draftbreakdown.com/video/marcus- ... -cal-2014/



I will have to go with what you say. I haven't watched Mariota much at all. I did see and understand what Dilfer was getting at but like you say he either was lazy or wanted to throw that out there so if Mariota happens to fail the Dilfer can tell everyone I told you so. If Mariota succeeds all Dilfer has to say is his pro coach corrected his dificencies. Mariota could have just had a bad game or several series.

My bad. I knew there was a reason why I don't really watch much of the nfl stuff on t.v. It gets tiring seeing all these experts being so cock sure of what they are saying and all of them are saying something different.

Much like us posters here. :wink:
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Re: Jameis is an obvious bust

Postby salmar80 » Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:59 am

texas wrote:I don't see why everyone is debating Mariota/Winston like it's some sort of toss-up. Winston obviously will be a bust. He's a moron. When was the last time a flaming idiot became a good long term QB?


LOL!!! I've had the same feeling. Immaturity combined with top pick money, going to a bad team and likely forced to start right away => Poison.

Below is NFP's Greg Gabriel, the former Director of College Scouting for the Bears breaking Winston down. Says "I wouldn’t draft Winston in any round":

NFP Prospect Focus: Jameis Winston

In mid-August, I wrote some preseason preview articles on some of the top players going into the college season. Included in one of those articles was a piece on Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston.

In August and now I believe Jameis Winston is a very talented football player. In saying that, as talented as he is, he has improved in some areas and regressed in others. Before we talk about those areas, let’s talk about some of the great natural traits that Winston possesses.

Jameis is a third-year sophomore and a two-year starter. He redshirted as a true freshman in 2012 while Florida State had E.J. Manuel as its quarterback. He became the starter in 2013 and led Florida State to the National Championship as well winning the Heisman Trophy.

He has outstanding size for the position, standing at about 6040 – 235. He has a thick frame to go along with excellent overall strength and athleticism. While he is by no means a burner, he is plenty fast with an estimated speed in the low 4.6’s. He also has quick feet to go along with very good change of direction and body control. His overall athleticism is similar to Cam Newton’s but he is just not quite as fast as Newton was coming out.

Florida State plays from mostly a spread offense with some snaps from under center. They run and pass from both formations. Winston seems to have a good command of the offense and shows the ability to change plays and protections at the line of scrimmage. He also seems to be a strong leader on the field. Winston can set up quickly from both under center and in the spread. When he takes snaps while in the spread he still drops back some. He has good form and generally stays in balance. He has good mechanics to go along with a quick release. He usually does a good job setting his feet before he throws and seldom over strides into the throw.

While he has a very strong arm, he doesn’t consistently drive the ball to his receivers. I have seen a number of plays where he floats the ball. He shows the ability to go through a three man progression and he also can go from a primary receiver to a secondary receiver and back to the primary.

He has shown the ability to make all the throws necessary to play in the NFL. He can throw with touch when he has to and, generally, has shown good accuracy and ball placement. When he is on, he is excellent. He can throw from the pocket or on the run and has the ability to extend and make plays with his feet. He has a good feel for pass rushers, and when he decides to run, he has very good run instincts to go along with power.

When you look at his stats and study game tape, you can see where he has regressed some from his first year as a starter. In 2013 he completed 257 of 384 passes for 4057 yards. His completion percentage was 67% and he threw 40 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. This year he completed 256 of 422 throws for 3559 yards only 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.

Winston is taking more chances this year and forcing throws he never did a year ago. From mid-season on this year he has struggled. In a six game span from the Notre Dame game through the Florida game, he threw 12 interceptions. Often, these throws were into double and even triple coverage.

Despite his poor decision making, he has consistently been able to bring his team back form deficits (some huge) and win games. He has not lost a game since he has been a starter. On the field, Winston is very competitive and wants to win. I also think that many of his decision making flaws can be corrected with good coaching.

While Winston has the physical traits to become a very good NFL quarterback, it’s the intangibles that are worrisome. His off-field decision making has been poor to say the least, and it’s not just one instance, it’s been several. Within the next few days, we will get the results of Winston’s student conduct hearing and depending on the results, that could bring about other issues.

By the nature of the position, the quarterback is supposed to be the leader and face of the franchise. Winston’s off-field actions have given clubs concern as to whether or not he can perform that role. As good as he is on the field, he is extremely immature off, and there is not a doubt in my mind that his off-field issues have brought about the regression in his play this year.

I’ve been around the NFL for most of my adult life and I know that it only takes one team to “love you”. While I wouldn’t draft Winston in any round, there will be a few clubs that will take the risk and be willing to draft him high. Come draft day, it will be a classic “risk/reward” type selection. It will be a few years before we know the results.
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Re: Jameis is an obvious bust

Postby salmar80 » Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:08 am

And here's the breakdown on Mariota... "He is a work in progress and has mechanical and accuracy flaws that need to be corrected. Can they be fixed? Of course, but history tells us that quarterbacks who struggle with accuracy in college don’t get better in the NFL."

I would NOT touch either top QB in the 1st round, and am DAMN glad the Packers are under zero pressure to get one of them. :D I'd say Mariota has the better chance of the two at a NFL career.


NFP Prospect Focus: Marcus Mariota

I wrote up Mariota last year but figured he wouldn’t enter the 2014 draft, I didn’t go in depth with my evaluation. I said then that I felt it was in Mariota’s best interest to return to school for at least another year.

Over the course of the last two seasons I have studied 9 games and I feel I have a fairly good handle of his talent level and skill set.

When you think of a QB who plays at Oregon, you would think that with such a fast paced, high scoring offense that they throw the ball a high percentage of the time. That’s not the case. Over the last two seasons, Oregon runs the ball close to 60% of the time. This season, they ran the ball 566 times and passed 400. The ratio was similar in 2013.

Mariota has excellent quarterback size, He is listed as being 6040 – 219, but he may be more like 6034. He has a well-proportioned, long frame, and he is extremely athletic. He is listed as having been timed at 4.48, and while he is fast, I don’t see 4.48 play speed. He is more in the 4.55 range. Still, he has excellent change of direction and body control.

Mariota’s stats are excellent. This year he has completed 254 of 372 passes (68%) for 3783 yards, and he has thrown 38 touchdowns to just two interceptions. His numbers last year were similar, but his completion percentage was around 63%. He has rushed for 669 yards this year and 14 touchdowns. He plays in a spread offense and almost never takes snaps from under center. The offense is a zone-option type offense that uses the run to set up the pass. As a runner, he is excellent, and with his size, speed, and open field run instincts, few, if any, quarterbacks can match him. With his quick feet and athleticism, he can keep plays alive and extend them with his feet. In saying that, his feel for pass rushers needs to improve. I charted 2.5 games and he got sacked 10 times in those games. This season, he has been sacked an astonishing 29 times!

It’s not easy to get a good read on Marcus as a passer. A good majority of his passes are quick bubble screens, running back screens, swings and slants. These are very high percentage throws, and more often than not, he is throwing to his first read. In most cases, he throws to his first or second read, and in any given game, there are only a few throws where he will go through three reads and come back to his first or second. While he has shown he can do it, it rarely happens in that offense.

Mariota has a bit of a mechanical overhand delivery. His release quickness is average. He is not the type to “see it” and get the ball out of his hand quickly. It’s more deliberate. His footwork is average, and at times, gets a bit flat-footed when he makes deeper throws.

While his completion percentage is high, his ball placement is, again, average. Receivers often have to make an adjustment in order to make the catch. In the 2.5 games I charted, he threw only five passes that I would consider pinpoint NFL-tier throws where he had a small window to complete the pass. Most of his throws are to wide open receivers, and ball placement is average and surely not consistent.

Where Mariota struggles is with downfield throws. After 15 yards his accuracy really drops. Again in the games charted, he was 11 of 31 on throws 15 yards and longer. Granted, he has a number of completions for high yardage, but often, those are short passes that turn into long gains because of the run after catch skills of the receiver.

His deep throw accuracy was best in the Oregon State game. He had some excellent throws in that game. Mariota excels in his decision making. He doesn’t force throws and does not throw interceptions. He has thrown only six interceptions in the last two years, a stat second to none. He also wins games, and the bottom line is, that’s the purpose of playing the game.

With a quarterback, evaluating tape is only half of the equation. To do a thorough job, a school call has to be made where a scout can talk to coaches and support staff about the player. When evaluating a quarterback, the intangibles are at least half of the equation. Is he a leader? Does he want to be a great player? What are his work habits? How does he learn? All of those questions and more have to be answered.

From a physical viewpoint, Mariota is talented, but still far away from being a finished product. He is a work in progress and has mechanical and accuracy flaws that need to be corrected. Can they be fixed? Of course, but history tells us that quarterbacks who struggle with accuracy in college don’t get better in the NFL.

The quarterback class this year is not strong. Because of that, Mariota will get drafted high. He will get every opportunity to succeed, and I hope he does. In saying that, he may want to consider doing himself a favor by returning to Oregon and playing another year.
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Re: Jameis is an obvious bust

Postby JKB » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:42 pm

I wouldn't draft him ever!
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Re: Jameis is an obvious bust

Postby FSUmark » Thu Apr 02, 2015 9:19 pm

Winston isn't dumb. He got into Stanford. Is he an idiot off the field? So far he's proven yes. Do I think Winston is going to be Rodgers/Manning/Brady/Luck? No way. But he can be a solid QB in the league for a long time. He just turned 21 in January, he needs to mature quickly. He's big, accurate over the middle and deep, not fast but moves around the pocket well, throws with good anticipation and from Jimbo Fisher's accounts works hard in practice and in the film room. I think he can be a Rivers/Eli/Rothlesburger/Flacco/Romo. I do agree with Ghost_Lombardi in that his delivery needs work, however I think it has already gotten better as he's preparing solely for football for the first time in his life. He also needs to work on taking what the defense is giving him instead of trying to force it.
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Re: Jameis is an obvious bust

Postby YoHoChecko » Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:05 pm

I'm a little worried with Winston being the super charismatic, supremely confident guy with no experience losing and seemingly no understanding that he might lose if things go poorly. Cam Newton comes to mind (NOT for playing style) as a guy who players loved to be around but when the losses piled up, suddenly everyone questioned his leadership. It's amazing that Winston only ever lost 1 college game. But sometimes it's good to see how they respond to that sort of thing, too.

Then again, Jay Cutler was praised as being a bright spot on a losing team and it's not like his leadership has worked out well, either. Maybe some sort of middle ground.
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Re: Jameis is an obvious bust

Postby texas » Fri Apr 03, 2015 1:05 am

FSUmark wrote:Winston isn't dumb.


I don't know how you have all the off-field issues he has if you're not stupid. The big one seems to be a lie, given that she has now taken it to some sort of court I believe, 6 times, and every court comes away with the same opinion that she lied plain and simple. But the crab legs thing and the FHRITP thing, while funny, along with the times I have heard him speak, make me think he's a moron.

I just don't see Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Rivers, Brees, Wilson, Romo, Luck, Eli, Culter, Flacco, or Ryan doing all of that in 2 years as a starter. If you'd give me that rap sheet and ask for an NFL QB, I'd say Manziel, Sanchez, Vince Young, Cam Newton... you get the idea.

I know Manning had the athletic trainer incident but rather than keep doing stuff like that he quieted everything down.
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