Waldo's Big Board

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Waldo's Big Board

Postby Waldo » Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:58 pm

Alright, here it is, my big board, 2015 edition:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

**** This is a read-only link. I encourage people to spread it far and wide, please share with everyone.****

**** I would like some help during the draft to cross names out in real-time. I might be a bit late to round 1, will be spotty to update during rounds 2-3, and might miss a couple blocks of time for day 3. I'll keep it as updated as much as I can, but a couple helpers would be great. If you'd like to help, PM me and I'll send a editable link. For obvious reasons I'd rather not let that one get out.******

A few notes:

- Greens are what I perceive to be likely targets by Ted. Black are moderate likelihood targets. Red are unlikely. Blue were missing key #'s, but are placed about where I think they fit.

- Placement in tiers is relative to where I think they are going to go. Arrangement in tiers is based on how I feel Ted would arrange them.

- Ted places a high value on measurable athleticism, high #'s targets tend to be Ted targets, in general.

- Lineman are all mixed up. Guys with snapping experience (that I know of) are italicized. The cutoff between short/tall is 6'4.125". In hindsight I probably should have used 6'4.5". I actually am considering switching to 3 sizes in the future; Ted generally takes average height lineman and avoids outliers that are unusually short or tall.

- Ted clearly values the shuttle and 3 cone above all else on the OL. Next most important seems to be weight. He seems to place little to no value on arm length. Another trait GB covets is that the guy was a LT (or RT for a LH QB) in college.

- TE is the position I struggle with the most. Catching ability is what it seems is valued highest, the ability to go get the ball. It seems GB has 2 models, the short H-back catching FB type, and the taller inline/split type. FB's are mixed with short TE's; they are pretty much the same type of guys.

- At WR, athleticism, size, an catching ability is what Ted seems to target. One thing GB seems to prefer in their pass catchers (TE/WR) is that they were a QB at some point, HS or college.

- RB is an easier position to peg for GB. Both because there are clear patterns and because Mac talks about it a fair bit. Mac loves him some big backs. Big fast backs. Weight is clearly the most important trait, if a guy isn't 210 its doubtful GB is interested. Straight line speed seems to matter a lot too.

- QB is another position where it is at least fairly easy to disqualify a bunch for GB. Mac likes his QB's to be mobile. Not necessarily Vick-ish, but the ability to scramble for a first here and there is clearly highly valued in GB, another point that Mac has discussed plenty. Slow moving pocket passers are unlikely to be of interest to GB.

- Ted doesn't take big fat immobile lineman. Ted clearly values fattie mobility over degree of fatness. Raji is the slowest DT Ted has taken, and he ran the 40 in 5.10. Those big fat slow waddler types are highly unlikely to be drafted by GB, whereas the guys that can move well but might not be big enough are far more likely.

- The trend to take fast fatties extends on down to the bigs. A GB big can run fast. Height matters a lot less to Ted than it does to other 3-4 GM's.

- Ted does seem to take rushers that score well in either the jumps or the 3 cone.

- LB is another tough position to judge. GB hasn't spent more than token late picks in a long time at ILB, higher in the draft you tend to see what they really want a little better.

- For all DB's, size, speed, and the 3 cone matter a lot to Ted. A Ted DB has fairly narrow (and relatively rare) parameters and he rarely strays from it. S's can be a bit slower in long speed, CB's can be a bit lighter.

- I don't bother to look at the specialists except for where they are likely to be drafted.

*************************************

This is my 5th year doing a big board. Here is how I've fared in the past:

2014: 2 Green (Adams, Janis), 7 Black (Clinton-Dix, Thornton, Rodgers, Bradford, Linsley, Abbredaris, Goodson), 0 Red
2013: 4 Green (Tretter, Boyd, Palmer, Dorsey), 6 Black (Jones, Lacy, Bakhtiari, Franklin, Hyde, Barrington), 1 Red (Johnson)
2012: 3 Green (Perry, Daniels, McMillian), 4 Black (Worthy, Hayward, Datko, Coleman), 1 Red (Manning)
2011: 3 Green (Sherrod, Cobb, House), 3 Black (Green, Williams, Elmore), 2 Red (Taylor, Guy), 1 Blue (Schlauderaff), 1 Missing (Smith)

In total: 38 picks, 12 green, 20 black, 4 red, 1 blue, 1 missing. 32 of 38 green or black.
Last edited by Waldo on Fri May 01, 2015 1:19 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby Ghost_Lombardi » Mon Apr 27, 2015 10:35 pm

Just a quick look...

It seems like Trae Waynes sluggishness when changing direction - a faster 40 than 20 yard shuttle - and a 3 cone above 7.0 makes him an unlikely target given how TT has drafted in the past. Worse than a black if I understand your categories right. He did "redo" the 20 yard shuttle at his pro day, but the lack of passes broken up on tape seems to back up the measurables at the combine.

--

On another note, I have to admit I don't see it with Gurley. He runs upright and exposes himself a lot and will often lose patience and run into his own OFF linemen. I mean, I get that he is one of the best RB prospects this year, but I don't see a gulf between him and Gordon and Ajayi. Maybe you or YoHo can convince me that he is the best RB to come out since Richardson, er, I mean AP (see what I did there...)
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby Ghost_Lombardi » Mon Apr 27, 2015 10:35 pm

Just a quick look...

It seems like Trae Waynes sluggishness when changing direction - a faster 40 than 20 yard shuttle - and a 3 cone above 7.0 makes him an unlikely target given how TT has drafted in the past. Worse than a black if I understand your categories right. He did "redo" the 20 yard shuttle at his pro day, but the lack of passes broken up on tape seems to back up the measurables at the combine.

--

On another note, I have to admit I don't see it with Gurley. He runs upright and exposes himself a lot and will often lose patience and run into his own OFF linemen. I mean, I get that he is one of the best RB prospects this year, but I don't see a gulf between him and Gordon and Ajayi. Maybe you or YoHo can convince me that he is the best RB to come out since Richardson, er, I mean AP (see what I did there...)
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby YoHoChecko » Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:02 pm

Honestly, if you don't see it with Gurley, I don't know what to tell you. He is, to me, the most consistently great RB I've seen in college football in quite some time (when healthy). He destroys would-be tacklers. He breaks far more tackles than the other guys you mention, and he does so against guys that end up in the NFL. I see it. I watch a ton of UGA games as an alum, and I've never seen a series and thought "man, Gurley should have done better there." When healthy, he doesn't let you down. And his special plays are frequent.

And yes, I realize I said "when healthy" twice in that paragraph.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby NCF » Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:17 pm

What drops Damarious Randall down to red? He was actually a guy I was wondering could make it as a boundary CB.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby YoHoChecko » Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:30 pm

Waldo, great work as always. Of course, I also have some questions.

What numbers did you look at that make Justin Coleman a poor fit? His 40-time is 0.01 second slower than Kevin Johnson and his shuttle is sub 4.00 seconds and his 3-cone is one of the best in the draft. I know you have a random 4.5 and below theory that I don't think holds water, but at the very least, Coleman should be black like Kevin Johnson is.

Also, I'm curious why Maxx WIlliams is green and James O'Shaughnessy is black (and they're in different categories).
WIlliams: 6'4", 249, 4.78 40, 17 bench, 4.37 shuttle, 7.30 3-cone, 34.5 inch vertical
O'Shaugnessy: 6'4" 248, 4.68 40, 16 bench, 4.38 shuttle, 7.20 3-cone, 35 inch vertical

I have seen nothing in scouting reports indicating that he struggles to catch the ball, either. And everything indicates that O'Shaughnessy is a stronger blocker. Just a small school little-known guy is all.


What makes Karlos Williams red? He fits the mold of a big (6'1" 230), fast (4.48) back, like you said, but I imagine maybe his shuttle or 3-cone wipes him out?

Does a history of dropping passes not downgrade Sammie Coates? I cant read a report without mention of frequent and sometimes ill-times dropped passes.


I think that's it for now (-:
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby YoHoChecko » Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:40 pm

NCF wrote:What drops Damarious Randall down to red? He was actually a guy I was wondering could make it as a boundary CB.

That's also a good question. Is it the 8th of an inch below 5'11"? Because I think that still counts as being 5'11", but that's the only thing I could see from a quick look.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby YoHoChecko » Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:44 pm

One more: why is Tyeler Davison green? 5.18 40? His cod numbers look about normal, but I don't know what normal is for fatties.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby Ghost_Lombardi » Tue Apr 28, 2015 12:23 am

From PFF: Gordon averaged 3.6 yards after contact; Gurley was at 3.9. Gurley broke more tackles per carry; Gordon had more yards per carry.

--

Chubb averaged above 7 yards per carry for Georgia as well. I don't see anyone touting Chubb as "the best back since AP." That doesn't mean Gurley isn't great, but it does give one pause about who or what was responsible for the RB production coming out of Georgia.

--

In major bowl games the SEC was quite bad this year, so I don't really see why the conference Gurley played in really matters. Five yeaars ago, probably, but not in 2014. Right now the perception of the SEC is greater than actual play. I'd take the top 4 or 5 Big Ten programs over the top 4 or 5 SEC teams right now.

I just don't think it is hands down that Gurley is the best RB in the draft. If he runs upright in the NFL and doesn't get behind his pads he'll be out for a whole of games.

Here's Bucky Brooks on Gordon/Gurley. His analysis isn't necessarily correct, I'm just giving it to show that I'm not alone and that it is certainly possible for Gordon to go first or in the 1st come Thursday.

A few weeks ago, I wrote that I expect the devaluation of the running back position to end in the 2015 draft. I believe the college landscape is full of talented running backs with the skills to step in as impact players at the next level. Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon and Georgia's Todd Gurley were at the top of my list, but I wanted to take a deeper look at the frontrunners to see which one would be my choice today. Given some time to dig through the game film, here's what I discovered when I matched up two of college football's top runners in a tale of the tape:

Vision

The best running backs in the game display remarkable vision in tight quarters. Elite runners have their feet attached to their eyes, which allows them to quickly bounce into creases on the back side at a moment's notice. Gurley shows outstanding vision and anticipation as a downhill runner. He attacks creases between the tackles, yet has the agility and body control to slide into open seams. More importantly, Gurley keeps his shoulders square, which allows him to see the entire defense and pick up yards despite facing eight-man fronts.

Gordon displays exceptional vision with the ball in his hands. He quickly spots open lanes between the tackles, but also shows the awareness to bounce to the outside when defenders fall inside. Gordon complements his terrific anticipation with remarkable stutter-step quickness, balance and body control. As a result, Gordon is a home-run threat every time he touches the ball as a runner.

Advantage: Gordon

Power

NFL scouts and coaches covet hard-nosed runners with the ability to run through contact. Elite runners are expected to break tackles at the point of attack to ensure gains on most carries. Additionally, top running backs display strong finishing skills, allowing them to fall forward at the end of runs. Gurley is an old-school runner with excellent size, strength and power. He blows through defenders in the hole and finishes his runs with authority. Although a series of nagging injuries last season prevented Gurley from displaying the physicality and toughness that quickly made him a household name as a freshman, he flashed enough strength and power to pique the interest of scouts searching for a potential workhorse runner at the next level.

Gordon is a sneaky power runner with surprising lower-body strength. Measuring 5-foot-11, 203 pounds, he looks like a finesse runner, but routinely runs through arm tackles at the second level. Gordon's ability to bounce off contact, maintain his balance and accelerate to top speed has not only led to big runs, but it's one of the reasons he ran for a ridiculous 7.8 yards per carry in 2013.

Advantage: Gurley

Explosiveness

Speed is overrated at the running back position, but NFL coaches still covet runners with outstanding acceleration and burst. Thus, elite runners must be able to hit a gear to explode to and through the second level when huge lanes appear between the tackles. Gurley displays outstanding short-area quickness and explosiveness with the ball in his hands. The 6-1, 232-pound junior repeatedly exploded through creases on powers and counters to record a host of 10-plus yard gains for the Bulldogs. In addition, Gurley displayed home-run ability as a rusher by outrunning multiple defenders in the secondary on the way to explosive scores (see Clemson game; 75-yard touchdown run). Although he doesn't appear to possess sub-4.4 speed, Gurley's combination of size, speed and acceleration should rank among the elite runners in the 2015 or 2016 classes.

Gordon is the prototypical home-run hitter at the position. He is a speed demon (Gordon reportedly clocks 40-yard dash times in the low-to-mid 4.4-second range) with remarkable explosiveness and instant acceleration. Gordon quickly gets to top gear in the open field, but appears to have an extra burst when he needs to pull away from defenders on long runs. This is readily apparent when Gordon takes a Fly-Sweep heading to the perimeter and hits the turbo button turning the corner. He simply has another gear that few defenders in the Big Ten can match, resulting in a number of big runs on perimeter plays since he cracked the rotation in 2012. With Gordon entering the season regarded as the premier home-run rusher in college football on the strength of a career 8.1 yards-per-carry average, it's hard to question his speed, burst or explosiveness as a perimeter runner.

Advantage: Gordon

Big-play ability

The running game in the NFL is viewed as an afterthought in a pass-centric league. Thus, the top running backs in the draft must display big-play ability to warrant serious consideration at the top of board. Gurley certainly flashes big-play potential despite playing in a downhill, pro-style offense at Georgia. The junior standout shows remarkable quickness, instincts and awareness in the open field. Additionally, he flashes surprising acceleration and burst for a big runner, which makes him a coveted commodity in scouting circles.

Gordon's big-play ability stands outs on tape. He repeatedly turns Fly-Sweeps and outside zone runs into big plays (20-plus yard rushes), yet is a disciplined runner committed to the four-yard gain. Gordon rarely is tackled for a loss despite being a nifty dancer at the point of attack. He has a tremendous feel for finding the seam on the back side, and excels at wiggling through traffic to pick up positive yards. Given Gordon's combination of speed, acceleration and instincts, it's very likely his big-play ability will translate well to the pro game.

Advantage: Gordon

Receiving skills
Running backs in the NFL must be able to contribute to the passing game as receivers. Offensive coordinators routinely use running backs on screens, checkdowns and option routes to give the quarterback an outlet against pressure. Gurley is a terrific pass-catcher. He shows strong hands and is a nifty route runner. Although he isn't asked to run a number of exotic routes, he displays enough balance and body control to execute the basic routes in a pro playbook.

Gordon hasn't been exposed to the passing game during his time at Wisconsin. He has just three career receptions in three seasons and hasn't been asked to run a variety of routes as a Badger. Although Gordon appears to be athletic enough to be an effective receiver, he hasn't put enough reps on tape to give him an accurate grade.

Advantage: Gurley

Conclusion

After hearing so much about the top running backs in the 2015/2016 classes, I assumed Gurley would win this comparison with ease. However, I was more impressed with Gordon's speed, acceleration and overall skills when I studied the tape. In fact, I believe Gordon is a complete running back with all of the skills to be a standout at the next level. He reminds me of a young Darren McFadden from a style standpoint, but I envision him becoming a more complete runner as a pro. While Gurley exhibits the skills to be a terrific pro, too, I would opt for Gordon as my pick at this time. It will be interesting to see if the comparison holds up throughout the fall.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby YoHoChecko » Tue Apr 28, 2015 12:31 am

Ghost_Lombardi wrote:From PFF: Gordon averaged 3.6 yards after contact; Gurley was at 3.9. Gurley broke more tackles per carry; Gordon had more yards per carry.


So right. Gurley broke more tackles and averages more yards after contact. Exactly as I would have expected. Because he does that ALL THE TIME.

Ghost_Lombardi wrote:In major bowl games the SEC was quite bad this year, so I don't really see why the conference Gurley played in really matters. Five yeaars ago, probably, but not in 2014. Right now the perception of the SEC is greater than actual play. I'd take the top 4 or 5 Big Ten programs over the top 4 or 5 SEC teams right now.
I didn't say anything about conference. I said he does it against GUYS that play in the NFL. Look back at his freshman tape and you'll see people bouncing off of him and realize you know their names. Look at this year's Clemson game and watch what happens hen guys like Anthony, Beasley, and Jarrett get to him. I'm talking about actual NFL players and soon-to-be-NFL players and watching the way Gurley treats them. I've admittedly seen less of Gordon, and I've heard there's some nasty tape of Gregory against him (in Gordon's favor), but I'm just saying he makes players that will play in the NFL look like an inferior level of competition. What Nick Chubb did is irrelevant because we're not just talking numbers. I'm talking about watching him play. And because Chubb may also be very good, we'll see. Gurley was much more exciting and dynamic to watch than Chubb, though.

Also, I have a long history of finding Bucky Brooks' commentary to be a clear indicator as to why he couldn't keep a job as an NFL scout, but I don't think you're ALONE in this. I just disagree strongly with anyone who thinks Gordon is the player Gurley is. How their careers shake out of course depends on many things. But I have only ever seen two backs coming out that I liked this much. Adrian Peterson and Ronnie Brown. So I guess I'm 50/50 (-;
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby Ghost_Lombardi » Tue Apr 28, 2015 12:59 am

Gordon v Auburn: 34 carries for 251 yards, 3 TDs

Gordon v LSU: 16 carries for 140 yards, 1 TD (#$%! head coach stopped giving him the ball!)

--

They both produced against good talent. Gurley certainly has more power. Hard to say on the speed given that he didn't run at the combine - he's fast, but Gordon is too. I don't think straight line speed is all that important. Someone like Tevin Coleman had all those long college runs, but couldn't run through an arm tackle - in the NFL those lanes won't be there. Gordon's second level stutter/elusiveness and acceleration is probably the best I've seen. Runs like the one against Auburn for the TD where he stuttered the S out of his jock and then stiff armed his way to the endzone showed that Gordon isn't just a product of the system.

We'll see. Maybe they'll both bust and TJ Yeldon ends up being the best back...
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby British » Tue Apr 28, 2015 6:49 pm

Great work Waldo. I'm now ready for draft day.

Sad to see Alabama FB Jalston Fowler as a red. I hoped he could be the FB to replace the ageing Kuhn.

Not only is he used to blocking for Lacy he has some versatility.

"Jalston, he's a general manager's dream because he saves you a roster spot because of his versatility. He can play fullback, running back, H-back, wingback, tight end, you can detach him as a receiver. He's got capable hands out there."

http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/20 ... _p_28.html
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby BF004 » Tue Apr 28, 2015 8:48 pm

Awesome, TY, got nothing of our own this year.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby BF004 » Tue Apr 28, 2015 9:45 pm

Nelson Agholor has really stood out to me this past week or so. Might be my favorite WR in relation to slot if Phillip Dorsett isn't, glad to see he is green.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby JustJeff » Thu Apr 30, 2015 12:24 pm

I'm curious about Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT from So Miss. He doesn't seem to be on your board at all.
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