Waldo's Big Board

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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby wootah » Thu Apr 30, 2015 1:02 pm

Thanks for that: great work!
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby Waldo » Fri May 01, 2015 12:33 am

Sorry I haven't been able to answer questions, been traveling for work this week. Just got home.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby NCF » Fri May 01, 2015 4:38 am

NCF wrote:What drops Damarious Randall down to red? He was actually a guy I was wondering could make it as a boundary CB.


Self plug.

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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby Bogey » Fri May 01, 2015 5:31 am

NCF wrote:What drops Damarious Randall down to red? He was actually a guy I was wondering could make it as a boundary CB.


Good call NCF.
The Packers lunatic fringe is more visible because of sheer numbers. The Packers have one of the largest fan bases in all of sports. If the fringe percentage is the same as with other teams, then we end up with larger volumes of nut jobs. - JustJeff
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby Waldo » Fri May 01, 2015 2:53 pm

YoHoChecko wrote:
NCF wrote:What drops Damarious Randall down to red? He was actually a guy I was wondering could make it as a boundary CB.

That's also a good question. Is it the 8th of an inch below 5'11"? Because I think that still counts as being 5'11", but that's the only thing I could see from a quick look.


Yes, it was his height.

Defining the line is a tough thing to do. Of course there is a size you prefer, but there is also a line you won't cross. I've always been under the impression (and Ted's drafting history backs it up) that 6'0"+ is the preferred height, and that 5'11.0" is the do not cross line. Even if 5'10.875" is technically 5'11", it is beyond the line that doesn't get crossed.

Then again, clearly I was wrong about that line. Which is unfortunate, because I had him in red; Randall is the first red major pick I've had (all others were late round guys).

That said, he isn't red because I think he will be a bad player, it is solely that height number. Everything else looks good and in line with what GB typically picks at DB. He really has a solid all around profile, no number (but height) is any worse than good. If he flops at CB, he still has the profile of a high end S.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby YoHoChecko » Fri May 01, 2015 4:17 pm

Waldo wrote:
YoHoChecko wrote:
NCF wrote:What drops Damarious Randall down to red? He was actually a guy I was wondering could make it as a boundary CB.

That's also a good question. Is it the 8th of an inch below 5'11"? Because I think that still counts as being 5'11", but that's the only thing I could see from a quick look.


Yes, it was his height.

Defining the line is a tough thing to do. Of course there is a size you prefer, but there is also a line you won't cross. I've always been under the impression (and Ted's drafting history backs it up) that 6'0"+ is the preferred height, and that 5'11.0" is the do not cross line. Even if 5'10.875" is technically 5'11", it is beyond the line that doesn't get crossed.
I've seen several publications mention 5'10 1/2" as the "do not go below line. Listed at 5'11" seems to be the thing, after rounding.

As I've mentioned other places, Randall is an eighth of an inch taller than Shields. Of course, we didn't draft Shields, nor did we draft 5'11" Tramon Williams. We did draft 5'11" Casey Hayward, though he's solidly 5'11" being just a shade below where they'd round to 6'0"

It's always tough to have a drop dead point. Because any point seems like "well, an 8th below that is basically the same." I've just always figured anyone who gets legitimately listed as 5'11" makes the cut, but the preference is higher.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby Waldo » Fri May 01, 2015 4:34 pm

YoHoChecko wrote:It's always tough to have a drop dead point. Because any point seems like "well, an 8th below that is basically the same." I've just always figured anyone who gets legitimately listed as 5'11" makes the cut, but the preference is higher.


Right. But that's why you need that drop dead point, otherwise you can "just another 1/8th" your way to way outside of what you prefer.

There is a whole nother subset of DB's, real fast little guys that can jump well, that other teams take and that tend to do well (your Darrell Green/Antoine Winfield types), that Ted just seems to have no interest in. Its the same at RB too.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby Waldo » Fri May 01, 2015 4:48 pm

Ghost_Lombardi wrote:Just a quick look...

It seems like Trae Waynes sluggishness when changing direction - a faster 40 than 20 yard shuttle - and a 3 cone above 7.0 makes him an unlikely target given how TT has drafted in the past. Worse than a black if I understand your categories right. He did "redo" the 20 yard shuttle at his pro day, but the lack of passes broken up on tape seems to back up the measurables at the combine.


I went back and forth with Waynes, red or black.

Were he to have been a 4.4 guy, I'd have had him red. Subpar COD skills can be compensated for somewhat by having blazing fast wheels. I found this at ILB first, generally COD ability can strongly predict success, except for the rare case of ILB's who have subpar COD skills but can run in the 4.4's, they tend to work out alright. Collins was somewhat like this at S, he wasn't very agile nor did he change direction well, but his straight line speed was so darn fast, it didn't matter.

With Waynes, the fact that he ran in the low 4.3's is what made him a black instead of red, because though he was big enough, the rest of his workouts were very subpar for Ted.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby Waldo » Fri May 01, 2015 5:06 pm

YoHoChecko wrote:Waldo, great work as always. Of course, I also have some questions.

What numbers did you look at that make Justin Coleman a poor fit? His 40-time is 0.01 second slower than Kevin Johnson and his shuttle is sub 4.00 seconds and his 3-cone is one of the best in the draft. I know you have a random 4.5 and below theory that I don't think holds water, but at the very least, Coleman should be black like Kevin Johnson is.

Also, I'm curious why Maxx WIlliams is green and James O'Shaughnessy is black (and they're in different categories).
WIlliams: 6'4", 249, 4.78 40, 17 bench, 4.37 shuttle, 7.30 3-cone, 34.5 inch vertical
O'Shaugnessy: 6'4" 248, 4.68 40, 16 bench, 4.38 shuttle, 7.20 3-cone, 35 inch vertical

I have seen nothing in scouting reports indicating that he struggles to catch the ball, either. And everything indicates that O'Shaughnessy is a stronger blocker. Just a small school little-known guy is all.


What makes Karlos Williams red? He fits the mold of a big (6'1" 230), fast (4.48) back, like you said, but I imagine maybe his shuttle or 3-cone wipes him out?

Does a history of dropping passes not downgrade Sammie Coates? I cant read a report without mention of frequent and sometimes ill-times dropped passes.


I think that's it for now (-:


- With Coleman he's red because of his height. If the height was there, one subpar workout (40 in this instance) would make a guy black.

- As I said, I really struggle with the TE position. Generally to get a green, a guy has to be noted as a good catcher (hard to find subjective info tho). And by good catcher I mean body control, tracking, going to get it. Drops is a different issue entirely; Finley is an example of a guy with superb catching ability that had an issue with drops. With TE's especially, there aren't a whole lot of them that can catch over the shoulder in a game situation (Quarless for example). Ted though really seems to value catching ability at the TE position; his two highest picks, Finley and Rodgers, were noted for it.

Karlos Williams has poor agility and COD skills as you noted (plus his jumps were pretty lousy, not very explosive either). But the bigger issue is the off the field red flags. Though never charged, he's been talked to by the police about robbery and domestic violence. The off the field stuff plus subpar workouts was enough to get a red; either alone would have meant black.

- With Coates, as with the TE's, drops are independent of catching ability. Guys with good catching ability that drop too many balls aren't nearly as big of an issue as guys with poor catching ability that drop too many.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby Waldo » Fri May 01, 2015 5:08 pm

British wrote:Great work Waldo. I'm now ready for draft day.

Sad to see Alabama FB Jalston Fowler as a red. I hoped he could be the FB to replace the ageing Kuhn.

Not only is he used to blocking for Lacy he has some versatility.

"Jalston, he's a general manager's dream because he saves you a roster spot because of his versatility. He can play fullback, running back, H-back, wingback, tight end, you can detach him as a receiver. He's got capable hands out there."

http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/20 ... _p_28.html


Fowler's biggest issue is that BJ Raji can outrun him.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby Waldo » Fri May 01, 2015 5:09 pm

JustJeff wrote:I'm curious about Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT from So Miss. He doesn't seem to be on your board at all.


He's there. In black in the rd 2-3 tier. I abbreviated his first name because his name is too darn long.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby YoHoChecko » Fri May 01, 2015 9:22 pm

Waldo wrote:- With Coleman he's red because of his height. If the height was there, one subpar workout (40 in this instance) would make a guy black.

- As I said, I really struggle with the TE position. Generally to get a green, a guy has to be noted as a good catcher (hard to find subjective info tho). And by good catcher I mean body control, tracking, going to get it. Drops is a different issue entirely; Finley is an example of a guy with superb catching ability that had an issue with drops. With TE's especially, there aren't a whole lot of them that can catch over the shoulder in a game situation (Quarless for example). Ted though really seems to value catching ability at the TE position; his two highest picks, Finley and Rodgers, were noted for it.

Karlos Williams has poor agility and COD skills as you noted (plus his jumps were pretty lousy, not very explosive either). But the bigger issue is the off the field red flags. Though never charged, he's been talked to by the police about robbery and domestic violence. The off the field stuff plus subpar workouts was enough to get a red; either alone would have meant black.

- With Coates, as with the TE's, drops are independent of catching ability. Guys with good catching ability that drop too many balls aren't nearly as big of an issue as guys with poor catching ability that drop too many.

Thanks for answering. Again with the CB height, I looked at CBS rankings and they round their heights, so I didn't notice Coleman was barely over 5'10 1/2", just listed at 5'11". Given the Randall pick, perhaps more of a black now?

As for O'Shaughnessy: nfl.com says: "
Strengths
Athletic with ability to stress the seam and challenge vertically. Uses acceleration out of cuts and clever hand usage to create quick throwing windows. Hands catcher who plucks it away from his body. Outstanding focus with ability to finish contested catches. Foot quickness to get into routes in a hurry and shake defenders after the catch. Will work himself open if covered. Gets feet into proper position as a blocker and gives honest effort."

Mike Huguenin specifically mentioned about him, "But it's his receiving skills that are the big selling point."

Obviously, you can't find all the reports on all the prospects. But I think given the measurable similarities and the subjective descriptions pointing to his athleticism and catching ability, I believe O'Shaughnessy is very much like Maxx Williams with much better value. I view Williams as a poor choice because of his early-round sticker price, but a solid receiving TE otherwise. I also think O'Shaugnessy, while needing to add strength, is at this point a better blocker than WIlliams. But at the very least, they belong in the same category of player.
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby YoHoChecko » Fri May 01, 2015 9:34 pm

Also, this, two days ago:
“I’m very excited. It’s been crazy the last month,” said O’Shaughnessy, who has received the most interest from Green Bay, Kansas City, Arizona, Cleveland, New England and Philadelphia. “I’ve had a wide array of teams giving me a lot of good feedback.”
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Re: Waldo's Big Board

Postby YoHoChecko » Sat May 02, 2015 12:54 pm

Ugh, it's like Quinten Rollins just waltzed in to challenge everything we thought we knew.
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